skipnav

ENSO Forecasting and Applications in the Pacific: Supporting the Transition from Research to Operations

Principal Investigator

Eileen L. Shea, East-West Center

The project is designed to provide a comprehensive overview of the lessons learned from the Pacific ENSO Applications Center (PEAC) program and, in so doing, explicitly support the transition of PEAC from a research pilot project to operational status under the auspices of the National Weather Service Pacific Region. The work will provide specific information to support this transition as well as valuable insights into lessons learned from the PEAC experience that may be generalized to other climate forecasting and applications research programs. PEAC was established as a NOAA/OGP research pilot project in 1994, as a direct result of a 1992 workshop designed to engage the Pacific Island government officials and resource managers in a discussion of the potential applications of then emerging capabilities to forecast the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Since its initial funding in 1994, the PEAC scientific team has engaged in an integrated program of scientific research, forecasting and education designed to promote the availability and use of ENSO-based forecasts to support decision making in U.S.-affiliated Pacific Islands. PEAC’s forecast products and education materials are now widely distributed and used by Pacific Island governments, resource managers, emergency preparedness officials and businesses.

The project addresses the following objectives:

1. Assessment of the effectiveness of PEAC’s approach to establishing and sustaining an interactive process of dialogue among scientists, forecasters and users; and
2. Identification of critical information gaps and future research needs associated with improving the development and application of climate forecast products for Pacific Island jurisdictions.

The project will employ written surveys, interviews and targeted, small-group discussions and will culminate in a workshop designed to engage PEAC users, scientists and forecasters in an evaluation of the past challenges and the identification of future opportunities. The project is being coordinated by the East-West Center in Honolulu, HI, but represents a collaborative effort involving Harvard University, the users of PEAC climate forecast products and the PEAC forecast team. The National Weather Service Pacific Region has pledged their full support and commitment to this project and are contributing both direct and in-kind support. In addition, the project will leverage other NOAA resources being provided to the Principal Investigator in the context of a climate education and outreach program designed as a direct follow-on to the Pacific Islands Regional Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Variability and Change.