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Decisions for Irrigation with Climate Forecasts

Annual progress report #1: 2004 (pdf)
Annual progress report #2: 2005 (pdf)

Principle Investigator

Michael J. Scott, Battelle Pacific Northwest Division

Using a case study of the Yakima River Valley in Washington State, previous work has shown that relatively simple tools can be used to predict the impact of the El Niño phenomenon on water supplies to irrigated agriculture, that this information could be used to estimate the significantly shifted probability distribution of water shortages in irrigated agriculture during El Niño episodes, and that these shifted probabilities can be used to estimate the value of exchanges of water between crops to relieve some of the adverse consequences of such shortages under western water law. The current project will refine the process for conveying El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts for advanced planning of river management and irrigation seasons. Are applying lessons learned by ourselves and by others in the NOAA HDGCR program on successfully using climate information to assist practical management of resources. In a series of workshops, we will work with the Bureau of Reclamation Upper Columbia Basin Office (also called the Yakima Project Office: hereafter, Reclamation), irrigators, climate experts, the Washington State Department of Ecology (which manages the issuing and transfer of water permits), and other stakeholders to improve planning for drought conditions in the basin. The project also will experiment with web-based and in-person methods (workshops) to better manage and make more useful the dissemination of climate forecast information in predicting and managing water resources.

Using a reservoir model and probabilistic unregulated flow forecasts that vary by ENSO state, we will derive proforma state-dependent rule curves for reservoir operations that satisfy flood control, irrigation water availability (including crop production economics) and instream flow objectives. Modifying rule curves according to ENSO/PDO state is expected to reduce the risk to junior irrigation interests facing specific levels of water prorationing. We plan to hold a series of intensive hands-on workshops with Yakima River basin stakeholders based on the principles of the convergence and collaborative learning approach for the purpose of information exchange and training in climate-variability-sensitive water management and revealing participants’ information preferences and use. Workshop participants will be asked to develop and explain competing plans for coping with the climate forecasts, using the modeling tools. We will collect data on the role of information in the planning and response process in the workshops, with probes based on the key issues identified in the literature concerning the use of scientific information and analysis in policy making and individual decision making.