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Testing the Ability of Subsistence Farmers to Use Seasonal Climate Forecasts: A Participatory Approach in Zimbabwe

Anthony Patt and Chiedza Gwata

2002

Progress Report 2002-2003 (pdf)
Progress Report 2003-2004 (pdf)

Since 1997, NOAA/OGP and other organizations have participated in preparing seasonal climate forecasts for southern African countries such as Zimbabwe. One of the important user groups for these forecasts consists of subsistence farmers. However, there is little evidence that subsistence farmers can make use of the forecasts to alter actual decisions, or indeed, whether they would if they were able.

This could be due to two factors. First, it could be that the forecasts simply do not contain information that is credible, legitimate, or relevant to farmers and the decisions they face. Second, while the information content may be adequate, it may be that the current means of forecast communication is inadequate. Currently, there are few efforts to downscale the forecasts to match local decisions, to involve farmers in discussion about their use, or to help farmers understand the uncertainties and range of outcomes they might expect.

This project seeks to test the first of the two factors by removing the second. Over five years, two of which have already passed, the researchers are conducting local climate forecast workshops in four study villages in Zimbabwe. At these day-long workshops, the facilitator works with local leaders and the farmers themselves to understand the implications of the forecast for the decisions that the participants themselves face. The workshops follow the best practices set found in the literatures on environmental assessment and risk communication. Coupled with the workshops, the researchers will conduct an annual survey to identify which farmers use the forecast, and why.

At the conclusion of the project, the researchers will be able to determine the usefulness of the forecast information itself. Additionally, through several years’ experience conducting and improving the workshops, the researchers will be able to recommend to forecast application organizations ways in which better to communicate forecasts in Zimbabwe, the rest of southern Africa, and other less developed countries affected by El Nino.

News and Media

El Niño data help African farmers - Richard Black, BBC, 08/28/05

Forecasts Help Farmers Improve Harvest (pdf) - Randolph E. Schmid, The Associated Press, printed in the Washington Post, 08/22/05, as well as other major US publications.

Anthony Patt*, Pablo Suarez*, and Chiedza Gwata (2005).Effects of seasonal climate forecasts and participatory workshops among subsistence farmers in Zimbabwe, PNAS. vol 102. no 35. 12623-12628.