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Engaging Agricultural Communities in the Great Plains of the United States with the Applications and Developments of Climate Prediction and Information

Progress Report 2002-2003 (pdf)

Investigators

Qi Steven Hu, Gary D. Lynne, William J. Waltman, Donald A. Wilhite, Kenneth G. Hubbard, and Michael J. Hayes, Lisa PytlikZillig
University of Nebraska-Lincoln

Time Period

Project began 2002

Advancements in understanding climate variability have improved and will continue to enhance the accuracy and quality of seasonal to interannual predictions of climate. A milestone in this effort is the successful prediction of the 1997-98 El Nino episode in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. A purpose of improving the predictions is to ensure they are useful to and are used by society, so it can be proactive in meeting the challenges of a changing global environment. However, improving predictions does not directly lead to their usage. The present situation is that seasonal and interannual predictions and information about climate variability have not been widely adopted even in weather and climate sensitive sectors of our society, e.g., agriculture and utility industries, nor have they been used effectively.

This situation raises the important need for research directed at improving our understanding of why climate predictions are not used and, further, determining the steps that need to be taken to improve their application by decision-makers. Such research also will engage organizations making seasonal climate forecasts and preparing climate-based products to better address the users’ problems and difficulties with the forecasts, and direct new ways to improve climate forecasts and products. This mutually stimulating and supporting communication and interaction between the users and developers of predictions is essential to advancing climate predictions and products and increasing their value to the society.

This study examines the current condition in use of climate forecasts and products by agricultural producers in Nebraska, and identifies personal and societal motivations for the producers to use the forecasts and ways to improve the use of various climate forecasts and products, with the goal to develop a protocol for application to the U.S. Great Plains. A series of focus group workshops will be conducted in three agroecozones in eastern Nebraska, representing different grain production regimes, rainfed, irrigated, and a mix of both, in the western Corn Belt. From the workshop results, a survey instrument will be developed and used for general surveys in the three study counties. Based on the data from the survey, a decision-behavioral model will be developed and analyzed to understand: (a) how the effects of climate variability are perceived and climate forecasts and products used by producers in the three agroecozones; (b) what are the attributes entering a producer’s thinking and their interplay to formulate the producer’s intention and decision to act on and use or not use climate forecasts; and (c) what is need to be improved in climate education and in forms of climate forecasts and products so as to increase the effect of climate forecasts in farmer’s thinking and decision-making. The goals are to raise the value of climate forecasts and products and, thus, climate research in the agricultural communities of the Great Plains and increase their use of forecasts to reduce vulnerability to climate risks in the changing environment.

Specific objectives of the project are to: (1) identify agricultural activities most sensitive to climate variability in the study counties and determine how the application of climate forecasts and products (or improved products) will help producers optimize production and profit; (2) develop measurement and evaluation devices and methods to quantify information and understand those factors that agricultural producers consider when making decisions with climate products, relative to their farm landscape and inherent climate variability and those social, environmental, and economic constraints that affect the way producers formulate climate forecasts in making their decisions; (3) use materials gathered in (2) and develop a model that will quantify the probability for producers to act, and the extent to which they act, on using various climate products and complete a particular task; (4) identify ways to improve the use of climate predictions by improving forecasts to find what adjustments in the climate forecast tools/products can be made to maximize the probability that producers will take action and correctly use the products; and (5) develop a continuous monitoring system to update our understanding of the evolution of producers’ thinking process over time, particularly, changes in the probability of using climate forecasts/products and their perception of the use of these products in their decisions in response to this project, major climate events, and government policies. This system will provide data to update the model developed in (3) and from this analysis to find adjustments for climate predictions and ways to continuously improve predictions. This system can be used as a protocol for expanding this methodology into other counties in Nebraska and other states in the U.S. Great Plains.

The uniqueness of this study is to identify why farmers in these counties do or do not use climate forecasts/products through an improved understanding of the extent to which they pursue the self-interest, i.e., the profit motive. Others-interest in decision-making, i.e., the extent to which a social and community interest influences economic thinking habit, behavior, and their cognitive illusions formulated under these influences also will be measured. A null hypothesis is that producers are not pursuing the others-interest jointly with the pursuit of the self-interest in earning maximum profits. A metaeconomics theory motivating such interest will be tested to evaluate how producers are dually motivated, as previous empirical testing has found. Psychological typologies of producers will be identified within the agroecozones, i.e., in effect psychological profiles for groups of producers, and determined to help further resolve spatial variance of decision-making processes by producers across the region.

The objectives and goals of the project are attainable in the proposed time frame because of existing substantial understanding of the agroecozones and the characteristics of the farmers’ communities. In addition, this research group has accumulated experience in successfully conducting surveys and workshops of various scales, and has developed decision and behavioral models. With the basis of good understanding of the problem, our integration of multidisciplinary knowledge and experience warrant a successful project.http://snrs.unl.edu/noaa-hdgc