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NOAA Climate Program Office
NOAA Research
Department of Commerce
Phone: 301-427-2089
Fax: 301-427-2073

Last Updated
November 4, 2005

What is the relationship between natural variability in the climate system, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and human health? How can we use climate forecast information to provide early warning of human health threats? How can climate information enhance public health policy and decision making?

These are but a few of the questions which prompted the ENSO Experiment, an interdisciplinary research effort to study the human health impacts of the current ENSO event, and explore the potential for applying forecast information in the public health arena.

Climate Variability and Human Health

That climate affects ecological systems is evident--witness changes in agricultural production during droughts and floods. It is also understood that ecological systems in turn influence the dynamics of disease transmission. For example, increases in diarrheal disease are often associated with extreme flooding events, recent research links cholera outbreaks with warmer sea surface temperatures, and climatic and weather variables affect vector-borne diseases. Throughout history societies have responded to recognized links between infectious disease and climate factors such as rainfall and temperature. That malaria comes with the rains, or that dengue is largely seasonal, is commonly known. Changes in precipitation and temperature, and extreme climate events, like droughts and floods, can directly affect human health, and can alter ecological and human systems creating conditions conducive to disease spread or outbreak.

Hypothesis

Driven by the opportunity presented by the current 1997-98 ENSO event, teams of scientists around the world are cooperating to examine the hypothesis that:

ENSO-related changes in precipitation, temperature, and other environmental variables have both direct effects (through drought, flood and extreme weather events) and indirect effects (through changes in transmission and outbreaks of infectious diseases, particularly those borne by mosquitos, rodents, or water) on human health.

Objectives

The overarching objective of the ENSO Experiment is to examine the relationship between climate variability and human health, and to explore the potential for using climate forecast information to provide early warning of conditions posing a public health threat. In particular this experiment has four primary goals:

• to assess the impact of the 1997-98 ENSO event on human health,
• to enhance the dialogue among the climate, ecology and health research communities and end users of forecast information,
• to document the use of forecast information in the health arena during this ENSO event, and
• to identify additional research and monitoring needs and future research requirements.

Background

The El Niño refers to the movement, generally every three to seven years, of a warm pool of water in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Coupled with it's atmospheric counterpart, the Southern Oscillation, ENSO affects precipitation and temperature patterns around the world, particularly in the tropics. Next to the annual cycle, the ENSO phenomenon, one of several modes of natural climate variability, has the largest impact on global climate. Based on research achievements over the past fifteen years, scientists can now offer skilful experimental forecasts of ENSO in regions where its impact is strong. The development of climate forecasting tools offers exciting potential for using ENSO forecasts to provide early warning of conditions conducive to disease, thereby reducing both human and economic vulnerability to infectious diseases affecting humans, plants and animals. To achieve that potential requires a collective interdisciplinary research effort.

The impetus for the ENSO Experiment originated from participants at the American Academy of Microbiology sponsored colloquium entitled "Climate Variability and Human Health: An Interdisciplinary Perspective," held in Montego Bay, Jamaica, June 20-22, 1997. The colloquium's objective was to bring together scientists from various disciplines to examine the current state of knowledge of the effects of climate variability on human health and to develop a future plan of action. Toward that end, one primary meeting recommendation was that interested researchers take advantage of the ENSO in progress and assess the influence of ENSO-related changes in climate (primarily precipitation and temperature) on infectious disease threats to human health. This recommendation laid the foundation for the ENSO Experiment.

Participants stressed that since the ENSO was already underway, researchers should build on existing activities and resources. This was to be, of necessity, an "on the fly" kind of project in which researchers would receive climate forecasts, make projections of anticipated impacts, measure or monitor for those impacts, and analyze the relationships during the ENSO event , or at its end. Though clearly the success of this venture depends on the participation and support of many agencies and institutions, at the request of the Colloquium Chair, NOAA's Office of Global Programs (OGP) agreed that OGP and the International Research Institute for climate prediction (IRI) would coordinate to facilitate this experiment.

For additional information please contact: Juli Trtanj, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Global Programs, 1100 Wayne Avenue, Suite 1225, Silver Spring, MD 20910. Tel: (301) 427 2089, ext. 134, Fax: (301) 427-2082, email: juli.trtanj@noaa.gov

Steering Committee

Since the ENSO event was already underway there would be no time for long term proposal development, experimental design and spin up activities. Drawing primarily from participants at the AAM's Montego Bay Colloquium, an interdisciplinary Steering Committee was therefore selected to help guide development and implementation of this ENSO experiment. Steering Committee membership includes:

Phil Arkin (International Research Institute for Climate Prediction)

Rita Colwell (University of Maryland/National Science Foundation)

Nick Graham (International Research Institute for Climate Prediction)

Duane Gubler (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)

Juli Trtanj (NOAA Office of Global Programs)

Communcation and Community Building

One of the objectives of the ENSO Experiment is to faciliate communication across, and foster the fusion between, the disciplines that are becoming the climate variability and health community. Toward that end, NOAA OGP has sponsored, participated in and coordinated several activities. Following is a list of key meetings.