IN THIS ISSUE
Remarks from Dr. J. Michael Hall, Director, Office of Global Programs;
Chairman, Forum Organizing Committee
Welcome to issue #6 of the ENSO Signal. As you may recall, the
ENSO Signal was initially created to provide background and
up-to-date information to participants in the November 1995
International Forum on Forecasting El Niño: Launching an
International Research Institute (IRI). However, since the Forum, it
has evolved into a broader publication, both in terms of content and
distribution. The ENSO Signal is now a quarterly publication focused
on recounting post-Forum activities, providing updates on the
development of the IRI, and reflecting on recent research and
applications activities reported by our colleagues worldwide.
This issue of the ENSO Signal continues to characterize the
diversity of our readers. Dr. Kaoru Mamiya of the Science and
Technology Agency in Japan presents a piece that provides insight
into Japan's involvement in the IRI. We also welcome a case study on
ENSO and the Chilean Fisheries presented by a research team from the
University of Miami, Columbia University, and the Chilean
Government's Institute of Fisheries Development (IFOD).
The Applications Activities section provides a brief description
of NOAA's Pilot Program for the Application of Climate Forecasts:
Addressing the Challenge of Applying Climate Forecasts to the
Decision-Making Process. This piece is followed by updates of
applications activities in the Americas, Southern Africa, Australasia
and the South Pacific. Finally, the Announcements and Upcoming Events
sections provide further information that may be of interest to you.
I look forward to our continued collaboration and hope that you
enjoy this issue of the ENSO Signal.
Toward the Precise Understanding
of the ENSO Phenomenon
- by Dr. Kaoru Mamiya, Japan STA
Global warming, ozone depletion, acid rain and marine pollution
are endangering the Earth's fragile environment. Nations worldwide
are responsible for effectively addressing these issues, while also
dealing with natural disasters like typhoons and hurricanes that
inflict tremendous property damage and human pain and suffering.
Fortunately, reinforced infrastructures in many parts of the world
have reduced our vulnerability to these disasters, although rampant
forces leading to these events have not yet diminished. These events
can also be attributed to human economic activity that has been
responsible for aberrations harmful to man. However, if we maximize
our efforts to understand the mechanism of those phenomena, we will
soon be capable of predicting such events and minimizing their
damaging effects.
The El- Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon refers
to a whole set of complex natural phenomena having to do with global
climate change that results in serious loss to our society in varied
ways. It has been pointed out that during an El Niño period,
Japan often suffers anomalously cool summers and frequent rainfalls
that can affect production of food. There is no question that there
is an urgent need to thoroughly address the ENSO issue. The
International Forum on Forecasting El Niño held in Washington,
D.C., November 1995, was the first-ever opportunity where major
nations of the world interested in ENSO prediction assembled. The
concept adopted at the Forum to establish such an international
framework was extremely worthwhile. I expect that the proposed
network when established, will contribute immensely to the
furtherance of all-ENSO-related research activities in the field.
Activities related to understanding the ENSO phenomenon are being
performed by those nations directly and indirectly affected. In
Japan, the Science and Technology Agency (STA) and other ministries
and agencies of the Japanese government are also dealing with this
important issue. The Japan Marine Science and Technology Center
(JAMSTEC), a general oceanographic institution that comes under STA
supervision, has been observing the tropical ocean and collecting sea
water temperature, current velocity and other parameters through the
use of its research vessel "KATYO," as well as several others. In the
near future, wide-range, long-term observation efforts including
large-size buoy deployment will be conducted using a large
oceanographic research vessel "MIRAI," which is currently under
construction.
The National Space Development Agency of Japan (NASDA), another
entity coming under the STA supervision, launched the Advanced Earth
Observing Satellite (ADEOS) in August 1996 and is developing ADEOS-2
and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), so in the future,
we will have more observation tools from space. Research on El
Niño is being conducted at many other Japanese institutes
including the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), the National
Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED),
and several universities. Other research themes include the
development of climate models, seasonal-to-interannual prediction
techniques, process studies and studies on interaction between ENSO
and the atmospheric circulation like the Asian Monsoon and the middle
atmospheric circulation. In addition to these activities, Japan is
engaged in various studies for ENSO prediction and several other
meteorological and oceanographic surveys related to such major
international efforts as TOGA, CLIVAR, and GAME.
In July 1996, STA published a report entitled "Toward the
Realization of Global Change Prediction" which reiterates one of
Japan's responsibilities as an industrialized country and responds to
the world's high expectations of Japan. The objectives of the report
are: 1) to establish targets for prediction of the global scale
phenomena, and 2) to make guidelines for integration of the programs
in order to accomplish the targets. The targets are divided into six
strategic programs for global change prediction, which are: 1)
Climate Change prediction in the Asia-Pacific region, 2) Prediction
of hydrologic cycles in the Asia region, 3) Prediction of global
warming, 4) Prediction of atmospheric component change in the
Asia-pacific region, 5) Prediction of ecosystem change in the Asian
region, and 6) Understanding the change mechanisms of Earth's
interior.
The STA considers it important to continue to strategically
promote its various global change research programs for the next two
decades or longer. As the report suggests, this will be done by
integrating three components of process studies, observation and
simulation into one concept of research and development. Above all, I
would like to especially mention that the STA will start a new
research initiative highlighting elemental processes of global
change, focusing on interactions between atmosphere and oceans, and
research on an integrated model, through the use of the new "Frontier
Research System." The system will provide research opportunities to
both domestic and international high-caliber researchers and
establish research bases in and out of Japan. Precise understanding
of the ENSO phenomena will be among the key elements of this new
initiative, and I hope that the STA can contribute to advancing the
concept of the International Forum on Forecasting El Niño
through these new activities.
Given the complex, global-scale nature of air-sea interaction
during an ENSO, this study cannot possibly be handled by any single
nation. It requires well-organized international cooperative
activity. Therefore, I believe that last November's Forum will bring
about much closer cooperation through active and candid discussion
among those countries involved, and I hope that the ad-hoc WG
discussion will contribute to the realization of an International
Research Institute (IRI). I expect that the IRI concept will prove an
important new step forward to building a needed international network
of collaboration to meet the challenge of ENSO prediction.
ENSO and Chilean Fisheries: A Case Study
in Social Complexity
by Sarah Keene Meltzoff, University of Miami; Kenneth Broad,
Columbia University; Carlos Martinez Farias, Institute of Fisheries
Development (IFOP), Government of Chile
"We're dealing with interplay between two very different fluids
- atmosphere and ocean - in the boundless dimensions of time and
space...neither medium has a 'normal' state, and abnormality in one
causes abnormality in the other. Weather is always abnormal. Events
such as El Niño have no definite starting point and no end -
its a matter of where you break into the scene and where you leave
it. Perhaps the only thing more complex is human behavior itself."
--Dr. Jerome Namais (footnote 1)
While some may argue with the above statement about "weather", our
study focuses on the last line - the complexity of human behavior and
its relation to ENSO events. There is widespread recognition of the
larger scale environmental and macroeconomic effects of ENSO on
different populations worldwide. Furthermore, the scientific
community is now ready to introduce ENSO forecast products to a wider
audience in hopes of enhancing social well-being of "teleconnected"
populations. Dissemination is beginning, however, with neither a
clear understanding of who these "populations" are and how they have
differentially responded on local levels to ENSO events; nor how they
may respond to ENSO forecasts. Since work in the '70s and '80s which
identified socioeconomic effects of abrupt climate change on various
sectors--including fishing, health, energy, disaster management, and
agriculture in various regions--there has been a dearth of detailed
studies within specific regions among socioeconomically diverse and
culturally heterogeneous inhabitants. Only with such knowledge can we
disseminate climate forecasts equitably and avoid unintended negative
consequences of operational probabilistic forecasts.
Our project examines northern Chile's fishing sector, the
epicenter of an industrial fishing boom which began in the 1960s and
has changed dramatically over time, in large part responding to ENSO.
This "sector" now ranges from breath-hold shellfish divers and their
families living in makeshift camps to factory vessels with nets over
150 meters deep, capturing species for fishmeal. Within this spectrum
exist mariculture farms, canneries, shipyards, and fresh marine
product exporters.
Our team is comprised of fisheries biologists, maritime
anthropologists, and marine policy experts from both Chile and the US
(footnote 2). Initial findings show legal, economic, ecological,
political and historical variables combining to generate a variety of
social outcomes. The following narrative reveals the overlapping
interests one must consider when introducing ENSO forecasts into
proactive planning and mitigation strategies.
South America's Pacific coast fishing industries account for over
15% of the total world marine catch. In Chile, the industrial and
artisanal fishing sectors combine to play a major role in community
stability which in turn effect the coastal ecosystem. Large-scale
migration and resettlement in response to shifts in fisheries labor
demands have longstanding, yet little understood socioeconomic and
ecological effects. Often these migrations are a result of political
situations which interact with ecological factors.
During Frei's government of the 1960s, followed by the socialist
government of Allende, most of the industrial fishery was
nationalized, and tremendous effort was put into advancing artisanal
fisheries coops. Fisheries development in order to compensate for the
prior collapse of nitrate mining, resulted in labor migration to the
north. People, drawn by "el olor del dólar"--the smell of the
dollar, referring sarcastically to the strong fish smell in the
cities -- settled in urban centers as well along the parched coast in
temporary enclaves called "caletas" which eventually became home to
the artisanal itinerant fishermen. Fishmeal factories, canneries, and
shipyards flourished in the urban centers.
The military ousting of the socialist government in 1973 reversed
prior policy. Massive privatization with emphasis on high production
for export revenue, and credit to increase industrial infrastructure,
resulted in the concentration of ownership. The military crushed
unions and coops and industrial workers lost a number of labor
rights, while gender roles shifted as women filled positions in the
increasing number of factories.
The buildup of the industrial fishing sector coincided with the
1972-3 El Niño event, resulting in a dramatic decline in the
anchoveta population: a decrease from 960,000 tons to 192,000 tons in
one year. Stock abundance did not recuperate before the major
1982-1983 El Niño. Consequently, anchoveta landings in 1983
were only 8,000 tons.
The displacement of Peruvian sardine stocks, during the 1972-1973
and 1982-1983 ENSO, favored Chilean fisheries in comparison with
Peru: sardine populations were replacing anchoveta in the Peru-Chile
upwelling ecosystem and horse mackerel stocks increased in abundance
throughout the region. Intense exploitation of sardines by the
industrial fleet, however, reduced stock biomass from a maximum of
9.5 million tons in 1982 to 2.8 million toms in 1987. By 1991,
landings had fallen back to a level of only 900,000 tons.
This spatial displacement of fish stocks had a greater impact on
itinerant fishermen of the rural caletas. El Niño wiped out
coastal algae, the food base, and killed temperature-sensitive
shellfish that they had relied upon. Artisanal fisherman in urban
centers were able to flow between sectors, working as crew on
industrial boats in hard times. Many fisherman and factory workers
who had migrated to urban areas found themselves jobless as a result
of the decline in fish stocks and expanding industrial technological
efficiency. Companies increased fishing effort and reduced crew by
switching to larger modernized vessels. They also merged and
increased the use of contract labor, lowering costs and exposure to
shifts in labor demands.
By recent legal decree, artisanal fishermen must now register in
only one region. The government's intention is to turn rural caletas
into permanent settlements to avoid overexploitation and conflict
which had occurred when itinerant fishermen followed shifting coastal
resources. Caletas have developed into distinct groups with political
power, forming syndicates united in a regional federation. Industrial
fleets also have formed a regional association whose power, however,
is often wielded outside official channels. The 1991 Fisheries Law
initially gave artisanal fisherman exclusive rights to the first five
miles but included a loophole for negotiations with the industry.
This laid the groundwork for informal negotiations and conflict
between sectors. These laws tend to exacerbate conflict given
overfishing and ENSO-related declines or shifts in stock location. In
spite of laws, the industrial fleet follows pelagic stocks inside the
first mile and their bycatch includes species critical to the
artisanal group, heightening tension between the two groups. For
their part, some rural caletas have responded by intensifying
exploitation of shellfish to the point of un-sustainability, others
by working on the black market, evading seasonal and quota
regulations. And several communities--negatively characterized by
their neighbors as "Wild West" caletas--have adapted by drug and
contraband smuggling. In addition, some caletas are involved in a
European Community oyster and scallop mariculture project which may
carry them through future warmer ENSO events, yet be susceptible to
future ENSO cold events.
Many separate fishing groups as well as governmental fisheries
organizations, each with political power in the coalition government,
are vying for access rights, labor rights and government assistance
in hopes of further exploiting spatially variable marine resources
impacted by ENSO. In addition to the conflicts over resources, there
remain ideological and normative differences stemming back 30 years
which hinder collective action.
After we have mapped out the sociopolitical terrain, our final
product will include realistic recommendations for policy makers on
the use of available climate forecasts to maximize socioeconomic
benefit, minimize social conflict, and enhance resource
sustainability. In conclusion, while statistical data and rapid
appraisal allow baselines to be established and gross generalizations
to be made, detailed studies which include participant observation,
work histories, archival research, situational analysis and
sociometrics allow the more subtle aspects of a given problem to be
identified and incorporated into models of social change. We believe
this will aid the application of predictive models of climate change.
------------------------------------------------
footnote 1:
quote by Dr. Jerome Namais in "National Geographic", Feb 1994,
vol. 165, No. 2, pp.183, article by Thomas Y. Canby.
footnote 2:
Additional team members include:
Nelson Ehrhardt - University of Miami
Daniel Suman: University of Miami - RSMAS
Ricardo Vicencio Figueroa - Universidad Arturo Prat, Chile Norte
Project
-------------------------------------------------
Pilot Program for the Application of Climate
Forecasts: Addressing the Challenge of Applying Climate Forecasts to
the Decision-Making Process
by James L. Buizer
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
conducts a Pilot Program for the Application of Climate Forecasts as
part of the agency's contribution to the multinational initiative to
establish the International Research Institute (IRI) for climate
prediction. The Pilot Program is intended to complement existing and
emerging activities around the world to develop and evaluate
methodologies for applying experimental forecast information to real
problems of socio-economic relevance.
Natural climate fluctuations associated with El
Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), an ocean atmosphere
interaction that occurs in the tropical Pacific Ocean, are among the
most important environmental issues threatening socio-economic
development and growth throughout much of the world. Droughts and
floods linked to the ENSO phenomenon can create substantial
disruption and severe economic dislocation in many regions of the
world, including parts of the Americas, the South Pacific, Asia and
Africa. Due in large part to the recently completed international
Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program, scientists can now
predict with reasonable skill, up to one year in advance, the
initiation of El Niño episodes in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
At the November 1995 International Forum on Forecasting El
Niño, an extensive collection of governments, scientists and
organizations interested in the continued development of climate
forecasts and the application of this information in
climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, human
health and natural disaster preparation, called for the establishment
of the International Research Institute (IRI). In recognition that
the full potential of this research and the IRI can only be realized
when these experimental forecasts are applied to practical problems,
the International Forum encouraged countries to explore opportunities
for incorporating this new scientific development into existing
decision-making structures.
The NOAA Pilot Program for the Application of Climate Forecasts
The NOAA Pilot Program for the Application of Climate Forecasts
has evolved in parallel with the advances in prediction made by the
scientific community, supporting applications workshops and related
training activities since 1991 (for comprehensive list of projects,
consult the Proceedings of the International Forum on Forecasting El
Niño: Launching an International Research Institute). The
primary purpose of these initial activities was to begin a dialogue
and provide a venue for information exchange among researchers and
decision-makers in climate-sensitive sectors around the world. As the
prediction capability and the interest in climate forecasts on the
part of decision makers increased, the need for a more formalized
program that would address applications in a systematic,
comprehensive manner emerged. NOAA's Pilot Program is intended to
help meet this global need, even as the scientific and governmental
communities work to make the IRI a reality.
NOAA's Pilot Program encompasses a suite of activities which,
collectively, provide the mechanism for transforming research results
into information designed to address specific problems and
distributing that information to key decision-makers in public and
private sectors. The overall objectives of NOAA's Pilot Program are,
in collaboration with interested individuals, institutions and
countries around the world, to advance the following:
analyses of the anticipated impacts of projected climate-related
changes in the physical environment on natural and human systems;
- studies on vulnerability to short-term fluctuations in
climate, and influence of changing socio-economic conditions;
development, evaluation and use of improved assessment
techniques and methodologies which provide for the integration of physical
climate forecasts into existing decision-making structures;
analyses of how the adoption of climate forecasts will alter
adjustment decisions in climate sensitive sectors, and how these new
patterns of adjustment will, in turn, affect other sectors, the
environment, and society as a whole;
dissemination of targeted forecast analysis products designed to
address specific resource problems or economic sectors; and
education and training of a multi-national cadre of scientists
and decision-makers skilled in the use and interpretation of new
forecast capabilities and analysis techniques.
NOAA's Pilot Program was created in consultation with experts in
the field of climate science and impacts. The Pilot Program has
several initial regional foci (Southern Africa; the Americas; the
Austral-Asia region; and the South Pacific), which were selected
based on ENSO's clear physical and socio-economic impact. In order to
address forecast applications in a systematic manner and provide
consistency, in as much as it is effective, among the different
regions, the activities in each region are based on a common
methodology, beginning with an analysis of the climatic and socio
economic impacts, and culminating in the successful incorporation of
forecast information into existing decision-making processes. Each
region's unique physical, social, and cultural characteristics
influence the impact of ENSO, the region's adaptive capacity, and the
ability to successfully use a climate forecast. The methodology will
therefore draw from a suite of approaches tailored to fit the needs
and interests of a particular region.
The objectives of NOAA's Pilot Program will be achieved through an
integrated set of activities, conducted, in general, over a three
year period and supported by a range of stakeholders. The primary
elements of the program are the following:
Element 1: Preparatory Studies
Develop 6-12 month projects designed to indicate the potential for
acting upon climate forecast information to mitigate climate-related
impacts in affected sectors such as agriculture, human health, water
resource management and disaster preparation;
Element 2: Capacity Building for Applying Climate Forecasts
Share preparatory study results, and develop longer-term (12-18
month) pilot application projects, which will begin the systematic
production and distribution of experimental climate forecast products
to decision-makers in selected sectors;
Element 3: Institutionalizing Climate Forecasting Networks
Demonstrate regional forecasting capacity, ensure long-term use of
climate forecast information and promote the establishment of a
regional climate forecasting network to interpret and apply new
forecasting tools to decision-making; and
Element 4: Review and Evaluation
Review and evaluate both the process and progress at each step of
the program providing feedback for activities conducted under each
primary element and supporting continued improvement in the
application of climate forecasts.
Conclusion
Pilot applications activities offer benefits to a wide range of
stakeholders, including the research, development, finance,
environment, private and not-for-profit communities. The successful
use of recent and future advances in climate sciences for the
promotion of sustainable economic growth and development, and the
mitigation of natural disaster losses requires multinational,
multiagency funding and commitment of both public and private
entities over the long-term. In addition, climate research and
forecast applications depend upon a partnership of social, physical
and natural scientists; decision-makers from climate-sensitive
sectors (e.g. agriculture, public health, water management,
fisheries, tourism); regional frameworks and organizations (e.g. IAI,
APN, ENRICH, START); government agencies; international institutions
such as the IRI; and development entities. NOAA's Pilot Program for
the Application of Climate Forecasts is only one step in the
development of such new institutional arrangements.
Southern Africa
Based on recent success in model-based climate forecasts that
simulate sea-surface conditions in the Pacific at least a year or
more in advance, there exists in Southern Africa, the possibility of
planning for anomalous climate conditions associated with the ENSO
phenomenon. To address challenges for climate scientists in this
region, in terms of improving predictive capabilities and better
understanding the connections between ENSO conditions and more
localized climatic influences, a Workshop on Reducing Climate Related
Vulnerability in Southern Africa was held October 1-4, 1996 in
Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe. Based on the success of initial preparatory
studies launched in August 1995, workshop participants recommended
more focused Pilot Applications Projects. These projects will be
tailored to build on existing activities within the region and to
broaden the systematic production and distribution of experimental
climate forecast products. The ultimate objective is to arrive at a
regional climate forecast applications network that could eventually
be linked to the International Research Institute (IRI) at a
subsequent Regional Conference in 1998 or 1999. For further
information, please contact Macol Stewart of the NOAA Office of
Global Programs; tel: (1 301) 427-2089 ext. 36; fax (1 301) 427-2082;
email: stewart@ogp.noaa.gov.
Mesoamericas
While scientists have recently discovered that variations in
climate may have played a role in the collapse of the great Mayan
civilization, its demise due to drought is a drastic example of the
importance of water to a society. Nonetheless, the essential nature
of the relationship between humans and climate, and the exploitation
of natural resources that links the two, is illustrated in many parts
of the Mesoamericas today. The NOAA Pilot Program recently
co-sponsored with the Inter American Institute (IAI) a Meeting on the
Application of Climate Forecasts in the Mesoamericas (November 14-15,
1996; Arlington, Virginia, USA). Participants included individuals
skilled in climate research and forecasting, and researchers from the
agriculture, health, water management and hydropower sectors.
Consequently, these climate-sensitive sectors are the focus of a
series of 6-12 month preparatory studies in the Mesoamericas intended
to develop initial methodologies for acting upon climate forecast
information. These studies will be presented at a regional workshop
for the application of climate forecasts, tentatively scheduled for
November 1997. For further information, please contact Lisa Farrow of
the NOAA Office of Global Programs; tel: (1 301) 427-2089 ext. 25;
fax: (1 301) 427-2082; email: farrow@ogp.noaa.gov.
South Pacific
Ranging from drinking water shortages in Micronesia, and wildfires
in Fiji, to increased cyclone activity in French Polynesia, and
changing tuna migration routes in the Solomon Islands and Kiribati,
the Pacific Islands lie in the heart of ENSO territory and are
directly affected by its associated rainfall and temperature changes.
During 1996, NOAA Pilot Program presented information on climate
forecasting and the IRI to participants at meetings of the South
Pacific Forum, the South Pacific Commission, and the South Pacific
Regional Environmental Programme. Based on discussions at these
meetings, and the experience gained over the last two years by the
Honolulu-based Pacific ENSO Applications Center ( a climate forecast
application pilot program focussed primarily on the U.S. Affiliated
islands and supported by the University of Hawaii, University of
Guam, NOAA, and the Pacific Basin Development Council, NOAA's Pilot
Program office was asked to draft an implementation plan for pilot
applications activities in the region. It is anticipated that this
plan will outline activities for each program element and define
roles for regional and international organizations, key South Pacific
countries, and others with an interest in regional applications
activities. For further information, please contact Juli Trtanj of
the NOAA Office of Global Programs; tel: (1-301) 427-2089 ext. 27;
fax: (1-301) 427-2082; email: juli.trtanj@noaa.gov.
Australasia
Pilot program activities in the Australasia region will begin with
a planning meeting scheduled for February 25-26, 1997 in Indonesia.
Discussions during this two day meeting will focus on the creation of
a framework for the development of pilot forecasting and applications
activities for the Asia/Pacific region. Also to be discussed are
plans for the organization of a regional workshop to be held in 1997
for extended regional development of this initiative. These
activities will build on collaborative work already completed in the
region over the past decade. For further information, please contact
Candyce Clark of the NOAA Office of Global Programs; tel: (1 301)
427-2089 ext. 23; fax: (1 301) 427-2082; email: clark@ogp.noaa.gov.
Other interesting websites:
El Niño
