"Humanity, long affected by Earth's changing climate, now plays an
increasing role in shaping it."
Reports to the Nation:
Our Changing Planet
THE ENSO SIGNAL
A Quarterly Publication
Issue 5/July 1996
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The ENSO Signal provides updates on follow-on activities and serves as a medium for dialogue on issues stemming from the International Forum on Forecasting El Nino: Launching an International Research Institute, held 6-8 November 1995, Washington, D.C. IN THIS ISSUE Remarks from the Chairman - J. Michael Hall Short Term Climate Prediction and Sustainable Development - Zou Jingmeng Science in the Service of Society - Michael H. Glantz Dissemination of Seasonal Forecasts, As Experiences by the Hadley Centre - David J. Carson Remarks from J. Michael Hall, Director, NOAA Office of Global Programs; Chairman, Forum Organizing Committee On the behalf of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and its sister agencies, I am pleased to announce that the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University (LDEO), in partnership with the Scripps Institution of Oceanography of the University of California, have been selected to collaborate with us in the development of the provisional International Research Institute (IRI). To reiterate an important principle established at the International Forum on Forecasting El Niño: Launching the IRI (6-8 November, 1995), the United States intends for this offer to the international community to serve as the "seed" of a fully multinationally-owned and managed climate forecasting entity. This partnership of the Colombia University and the University of California was selected through a highly competitive review process, and provides a rich backdrop of social, oceanic and atmospheric sciences to foster the cross-disciplinary collaboration essential to the success of the IRI. Even as we have taken this important step in the development of the IRI, however, the greater challenge still lies ahead. How do we, as an international community with a shared vision, transform a provisional IRI into a multilateral entity owned by a group countries, without dominance by any one nation or institution? How do we design and develop a multinational framework grounded in the belief that global phenomena such as El Niño require global studies and international collaboration, while recognizing that the relevance of the science to society must be developed at a regional scale? We began exploring some of these issues at the November 1995 Forum, but were only able to scratch the surface. Now that the U.S. offer of a host site has been identified, it is imperative that we continue and accelerate the international dialogue launched by the Forum. In the coming months, we will work with interested parties, including countries, institutions and organizations concerned with the full spectrum of IRI-related activities, from research to applications, to establish an operative venue for this important dialogue. In the months since we gathered in Washington, D.C. to talk about the IRI, the momentum generated by the Forum has continued to grow, particulary on the part of regional networks concerned with global change-related phenomena and sustainable development. The Executive Council of the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) indicated at a recent meeting (February 1996; Sao José dos Campos, Brazil) a strong interest in serving as a mechanism to facilitate the participation of the Americas in the IRI. To advance this interest, the IAI established an ad hoc group to explore possible joint projects and activities. In addition, several regions within the Americas are developing pilot applications activities geared to demonstrate the value of climate forecasting information and apply these initial forecasts to economic planning processes associated with climate-sensitve sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, hydropower and health. Participants at a recent meeting of the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN) in March 1996 endorsed the concept of a regional effort in linking producers of climate forecasts with the users of this information. Plans will be made over the next several months to organize a series of pilot applications activities to ensure that useful forecasts of ENSO-based climate variability can be produced, distributed and applied to strengthen social and economic growth and stability within the region. A similar effort is underway in southern Africa, with a regional workshop planned for October 1996. We have approached the challenge of predicting El Nino-related climate variability as a global community; from the multinational collaboration of scientists in the TOGA program that resulted in spectacular successes in climate prediction, to the recognition by world leaders of the potential for this information to improve the human condition at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in 1992, and again at the International Forum on Forecasting El Nino last year. The selection of the U.S. offer of a host site and the creation of a multilateral working group that will occur in the coming months mark other pivotal milestones along this path. I look forward to continuing to work with the international community to implement our shared vision of an IRI. Short-term Climate Prediction and Sustainable Development - by Zou Jingmeng, Administrator, China Meteorological Administration China is located in a region affected by the monsoon in East Asia and consequently is highly vulnerable to climate disasters, such as drought, flooding, extreme high and low temperatures, frosts and typhoons. In addition, the frequency of these natural disasters has tended to increase in recent years. The agricultural sector has been particularly hard hit. Since 1990, annual grain production has fluctuated by 10 million tons as a result of climate variability, resulting in a direct loss of 3-6% of the GNP. Although there are many physical factors influencing climate variability in China, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important. Chinese research scientists have found that ENSO is a very strong climate signal, with either a direct or an indirect influence on the frequency or distribution of drought and flooding. Although the relationship between ENSO and drought and floods is more complicated in East Asia than in other regions, certain significant relationships between ENSO and drought and floods have been identified which may prove useful in their prediction. Other factors which influence climate variability are snow cover on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, variations of the Asian Monsoon, and sea surface temperatures near the coast, such as the Pacific warm pool and regions of the Indian and Kuroshio currents. Research is currently underway in China to explore all of the factors involved in climate variability. The Chinese Government has attached great importance to the issue of climate, and a series of strategic measures have been adopted. In order to promote the sustainable development of society and economy, early in 1987, China established the National Climate Committee. In March 1994, the State Council approved and promulgated China's Agenda 21, in which it is emphasized that China must choose to take the path of sustainable development in order to ensure its future development into the next century. China is a developing country; the goals of increasing social productivity, enhancing overall national strength and improving people's quality of life cannot be realized without giving primacy to the development of the national economy and having all work focused on building the economy. At the same time, it will be necessary to conserve natural resources and to improve the environment, so that the country will see long-term, stable development. In accordance with this view, China's Agenda 21 clearly points out that construction of a monitoring system for climate variability, prediction and service should be supported, with the establishment of the National Climate Center as the top priority. China has a 30-year history of interest in predicting seasonal-to-interannual climate variability, issuing climate predictions by month, season, and year, as well as flooding season. In 1994 and 1995, forecasts of drought and floods were very accurate. Monthly climate forecasts have been implemented on an experimental basis using dynamic extended range forecasting. In addition to research programs already in progress, China is considering establishing a China Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) committee, and an automated system of atmospheric sounding to improve climate monitoring capability. We will also establish a network of short term climate prediction and application services within the framework of the National Climate Centers (NCC). Specific projects that will be implemented include the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment, GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Experiment) Hauihe Basin Experiment, and research on China's climate variability and predictability in relation with CLIVAR. We will also be improving and modernizing our seasonal-to-interannual climate prediction and super-computing capabilities. We are interested in exchanging results and collaborating with the scientific community the world over. We believe that the launching of a prediction program which will incorporate a network of research and application centers is beneficial both to advancing predictive capability as well as to accelerating the transformation of scientific results into applications. China will actively participate in the Seasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction Program (SCPP) and is willing to host one of the regional research and application centers. We propose several strategies to help ensure the success of the SCPP as it is implemented. First, encourage coordination with international organizations such as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and its member institutions, especially at the interface of SCPP with CLIVAR, GEWEX and CLIPS. Second, strengthen exchange of data and academic interaction. Third, improve prediction methods should with a particular focus on the development of regional climate models and operational experiments. Finally, emphasize the participation of developing countries and technology transfer to those countries. The commitment of so many nations demonstrated at the International Forum on Forecasting El Niño last November reflects the importance of short-term climate prediction to many countries. It is my hope that with the success of this multinational initiative to predict climate, we will see a new page opened in the history of atmospheric science. Science in the Service of Society - by Michael H. Glantz, Director, Environmental and Societal Impacts Group (ESIG), NCAR When information is first discovered, its value to society often seems clear to the discoverer. However, until that information is actually delivered, understood and used by society, its value remains potential rather than real. In order for information to be useful, its utility must be recognized by its users and it must be delivered in usable form. Over the years there has been a growing concern in the climate impacts community that users' needs were not being adequately taken into account in attempts to apply El Niño-related research results to societal needs. Questions began to arise, such as: Who are the real users, as opposed to the hypothetical ones? What do users need to know? When do they need to know it? How can a potential user of El Niño research output be converted into an actual user? In response to these concerns, the Environmental and Societal Impacts Group (ESIG) at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in early 1992 received support from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the US Agency for International Development (USAID) to undertake a series of workshops related to the societal aspects of El Niño. The workshops, which took place in Budapest, Hungary; Boulder, CO USA; Havana, Cuba; and Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam between 1993 and 1996, were labeled "Usable Science" to reflect their overriding goal of developing a stronger, sustained connection between El Niño researchers and societal needs in order to foster an improved understanding of climate-related impacts. Each workshop provided a different focus related to the use of ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) information: food security and early warning; the potential use and misuse of ENSO information; and ENSO connections with extreme regional climate-related events. These workshops provided an opportunity for researchers and practitioners to exchange information on what El Niño forecasts might provide and to determine the needs of specific users. The workshops brought together physical, biological, and social scientists with both actual and potential users of ENSO information in each region, such as water resource planners, agricultural ministries, farmers, public health officials, fisheries experts, insurance companies, humanitarian food relief agencies, aid and trade officials and others who have the potential to use the climatology of ENSO in decisionmaking. The workshops also offered a forum for open exchange of views among participants; some as doubters and some as true believers in the value of El Niño information. The Usable Science workshop held in Vietnam focused on the relationship between extreme meteorological events and ENSO in Southeast Asia and focused on the connections between human health and ENSO events. This multinational, multidisciplinary workshop was designed to introduce the potential value of incorporating information about ENSO and its impacts into training programs designed by training resource managers and other decisionmakers whose activities might be adversely affected by warm or cold events. Action-oriented suggestions from the workshop were divided into 4 categories. While some suggestions were specific to Southeast Asia, several were applicable to many regions. Some suggestions which emerged from the workshop include the following: Teleconnections
Societal Impacts
The Southeast Asian region is in the so-called "field of action" of ENSO and ENSO related impacts on biogeochemical processes and human activities. Research in this region on ENSO-related processes and their impacts on managed and unmanaged ecosystems and on society would serve to sharpen as well as strengthen global research on ENSO. Many of the answers to ENSO-related research questions would clearly benefit from information gained through the broader participation of researchers and decisionmakers from within Southeast Asia. It was interesting to note that, while some of the participants had been aware of El Niño information in a general way, they had not yet linked its utility to their particular area of activity. This underscored the view that while the ENSO research community had done a good job of "wholesaling," so to speak, the importance of El Niño research, there is a definite need to "retail" the use of that information to specific needs of specific users in specific locations around the globe. The climate impacts community has much to offer in meeting this need. These Usable Science workshops and related activities have identified from users their specific needs for information from the El Niño research and forecast communities. They revealed the fact that there is considerable groundwork to be done in educating decisionmakers and the public about the potential value and limits to the use of El Niño information (including, but not limited to, forecasts). An improved understanding of what the scientific community can be expected to offer now and in the future requires increased attention as well. Perhaps because of the considerable advances that El Niño research and forecasting communities have made over the past ten years, it is time to encourage the convening of groups locally, in order to identify local interests in and concern about El Niño and its impacts. These would be low-cost capacity-building activities with respect to generating awareness of El Niño and its regional teleconnections. It would also help the research community to identify information needs in specific sectors at the local level, ensuring that El Niño research reaches its potential as a usable science. I believe that there is value to such workshops: value for the science of ENSO, for the understanding of impacts, and for society. (Michael Glantz is the Director of ESIG at NCAR and has recently published a book on this topic, entitled, "Currents of Change: El Niño's Impact on Climate and Society," to be published by Cambridge University Press, July 1996. Additional information on these Usable Science workshops is available through the World Wide Web at: http://www.dir.ucar.edu/esig/index.html) Dissemination of Seasonal Forecasts, As
Experienced by the Hadley Center The main objective of the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, part of the Research Directorate of the United Kingdom (U.K.) Meteorological Office, is to provide the Government with an authoritative, up-to-date assessment of both natural and human-induced climate change. Our overriding objective is to achieve reliable predictions of the magnitude and rate of onset of climate change due to human activity and, in particular, the regional distributions of those changes. An essential part of our Research and Development programme which underpins our ability to make projections of climate change, is the study of seasonal to interannual variability, particularly in the tropics. Experimental seasonal rainfall predictions for NE Brazil and parts of tropical North Africa have been issued by the Met Office since 1986. In this article I shall focus on the procedure we have adopted for disseminating the seasonal forecasts that we make, to illustrate and draw attention to some of the important and difficult issues that arise when considering how best to disseminate such information. I hope that this will evoke an appreciation for some of the issues involved and stimulate wider discussion of this important aspect of seasonal forecasting in the context of an International Research Institute. The Hadley Centre issues forecasts for several tropical regions: North-East Brazil (March-May rainfall season); Tropical North Africa (July-September rainfall season); and tropical East Africa (October-December 'short-rains'). These predictions have been mainly based on statistical methods, both linear discriminant analysis and multiple linear regression, but dynamical methods are also being developed, applied and assessed. It is likely that the best forecasts will be produced by an objective combination of both methods - at least for the foreseeable future. Our aim is to produce forecasts that are self-contained and understandable to the intelligent recipient/user, and have added value to the recipients with meteorological expertise. Forecasts are presented from both statistical and dynamical methods with accompanying explanations. The experimental and research nature of the forecasts is emphasized. Also included with the forecast are: a qualitative description; forecast summary; confidence level; and a "health warning". In order for the recipient to form a realistic level of confidence in the forecasts, graphs of the performance history of the forecasts are updated and disseminated with each forecast. This is an important aspect of seasonal forecasting as it conveys a measure of the skill the researchers have achieved. It also reinforces the need for caution in the interpretation and use of such forecasts. For example, when the verification graphs for northeast Brazil and North Africa are compared, it can be noted that although the general levels of skill achieved are encouraging for North Africa, they are more variable than those achieved for northeast Brazil. Based on performance to date, one would therefore place more confidence in the forecasts for northeast Brazil than those for North Africa. (Fig. 1) The dissemination of seasonal forecasts is a delicate and difficult issue which will need to be addressed fully by the international communities, agencies and programs engaged in such activities. The issues go beyond scientific and technical concerns but also involve political and socio-economic issues. The Hadley Centre does not yet market or sell their seasonal forecasts or the products derived from them. The current dissemination policy is to send the forecasts to those National Meteorological Services (NMSs), other agencies and individual research scientists who have requested the information, have the ability to interpret the forecasts and who are not likely to abuse the information. The forecasts are first sent to the NMSs and closely related agencies of the regions involved. By working with NMSs, we can ensure that forecasting efforts enhance rather than undermine the position and credibility of NMSs. After a two to four week delay they are sent to the international agencies, other institutes and collaborating scientists. They are placed fully in the public domain at a later date through publication in the Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin published by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Forecasts are delivered using the method chosen by the recipient, and delays due to lack of computer technology or facsimile machines often reduce their timeliness and potential value. An important but relatively undeveloped aspect of the whole procedure of issuing seasonal forecasts is getting critical feedback from the NMSs, international and other agencies who receive the forecasts. Useful information from the users will include: how do they interpret and use the forecasts; what value do they place in them; are they used to provide customer-specific products for third-parties; what typical applications are they used for; what value do the end-users place in such information; and do they make any use of the forecasts at all? Indeed, how should recipients interpret and use "experimental" forecasts? To date, all of the forecast recipients are keen to continue to receive forecasts. One NMS combines the forecasts with other local information to inform its Ministry of Agriculture. Since the forecasts are experimental, rather than "operational", they are not used directly for strategic planning. Another NMS reported using the forecasts to plan seasonal crop planting. One user that is not an NMS is looking forward to reaching the stage where seasonal forecasting information can be integrated into their crop models. Rainfall predictions are also being used in the context of planning for power generation. Dissemination of the forecasts is but one critical stage in the whole process. Local education and training, and the transfer of techniques and technology are also important issues that need to be addressed. Forecasts will only have value if the intermediate and end users have the knowledge to interpret them, confidence in their reliability, and the resources to implement them. This will require strong communications between the various key participants along the end-to-end chain from researcher to forecaster to intermediate recipient of the forecasts to the end user who applies the final, tailored product. Many key issues related to the production and dissemination of seasonal forecasts have been alluded to in this article. These will need to be addressed fully and resolved in the context of the new initiative to launch an International Research Institute for seasonal to interannual climate prediction. The ultimate issue is how do we reach those who stand to benefit most, with a product of value, which can be understood and used, and which is timely and not held up or otherwise contained by politics, bureaucracy or commercial interests? ANNOUNCEMENTS For additional information or to obtain a copy of the OCFS
document, please contact: €The Pacific Applications Center of the University of Hawaii produces a newsletter entitled Pacific ENSO Update. It is intended to be produced quarterly, with additional special reports on changes in ENSO conditions as may be required. For more information about the current ENSO event, or to receive future issues of this bulletin, please contact: Alan C. Hilton, LT/NOAA, UPCOMING EVENTSAn International Symposium on Resources, Environment, and Sustainable Development will be held 22-29 August 1996 in Shenyang, P.R. China. For further information, contact Prof. Dr. Qingli Wang, Secretary General, RESD Symposium, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, PO Box 417, Shenyang 110015, P.R. China; phone: (24) 391-6286, fax: (24) 384-3313. Impact of Weather and Climate Variability on Biosphere, 14th International Congress of Biometeorology to be held September 1 - 8, 1996 in Ljubljana, Slovenia. Contact: Professor Dr. Andrej Hocecav, University of Ljubljana, Biotechnical Facility, Jamnikarjeva 101, 61000 Ljubljana, Slovenia. Fax: 386 61 123 1088 An interdisciplinary symposium on Responsible Environmental Behavior will be held 4-7 September 1996 in Berne, Switzerland. The goal of the symposium is to look for answers to questions that are fundamental with respect to sustainable development of human societies. Findings from a broad variety of disciplines treating four selected aspects of responsible environmental behavior will be brought together, and their significance for applied fields and for politics will be discussed. For further information, contact the Symposium for Responsible Environmental Behavior, IKA , Universtat Bern, Falkenplatz 16, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland; phone: (41-31) 631-3958, fax: (41-31) 631-8733, e-mail: info@ikaoe.unibe.ch. Eco-Informa '96 will be held 4-7 November 1996 at Epcot Science and Technology Center in Lake Buena Vista, Florida. It will focus on worldwide communications for environmental applications, and will address the need to share information that promotes responsible decision making. For further information, contact ERIM/Eco- Informa, PO Box 134001, Ann Arbor, MI 48113-4001, USA; phone: (1-313) 994-1200, ext. 3234, fax: (1-313) 994-5123, e-mail: wallman@erim.org. Production Staff Lisa Dilling (301) 427-2089 ext. 106
Joshua Foster (301) 427-2089 ext. 173 |
