"Humanity, long affected by Earth's changing climate, now plays an
increasing role in shaping it."
Reports to the Nation:
Our Changing Planet
THE ENSO SIGNAL
Issue 12/January 2000
|
The ENSO Signal provides updates on follow-on activities and serves as a medium for dialogue on issues stemming from the International Forum on Forecasting El Nino: Launching an International Research Institute, held 6-8 November 1995, Washington, D.C. IN THIS ISSUE IRI: Where We Are Now; Where We Are Going A Review of the IRI's Progress NOAA-Office of Global Programs Applications Program The NOAA/OGP Climate Information Project NOAA's Human Dimensions Research Element: Our Current Strategy NOAA-Office of Global Programs: The Regional Assessments Program Proposal for a Climate Affairs Program Remarks from J. Michael Hall, Director, NOAA Office of Global Programs Welcome to the twelfth issue of the ENSO Signal. Since initiation in 1995, this newsletter has evolved from a vehicle to provide updates on the International Forum for Forecasting El Niņo which launched the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI). It is now one sharing information on development of the IRI, year-to-year climate variations and their potential societal impacts, and global applications activities focused on incorporating climate forecast information into decision-making and resource management. This is the final issue of the ENSO Signal to be produced by the NOAA Office of Global Programs. However, the newsletter will live on! I am delighted to announce that we have asked the National Center for Atmospheric Research Environmental and Societal Impacts Group, directed by Michael Glantz, to assume responsibility for the newsletter. It has always been the intention of NOAA-OGP to hand over the ENSO Signal to a new team at an appropriate time. Confident that the newsletter has served its original purpose of educating and informing those interested in climate research and applications, NOAA-OGP recognizes that the time is right for the publication to undergo transition in order to meet the needs of a growing and changing readership. We fully anticipate that the newsletter will continue to be a source of valuable information on ENSO-related issues even as its perspective and vision continue to unfold and are refined under new leadership. In continuing the trend of tracking development of the IRI, it is fitting to briefly highlight the Institutions accomplishments to date. The IRI has evolved from a concept to a thriving establishment that performed impressively during the 1997-1999 ENSO cycle. The Institution spearheaded production of experimental seasonal climate forecasts for virtually every region of the world and has been an integral part of training and applications activities targeting a wide range of national and international end-users of climate forecast information around the world. Recently, the IRI emerged successfully from a rigorous panel review of its programs, accomplishments and intended direction. In response to recommendations by the reviewers, the Institution's activities have now officially been consolidated on the campus of the Columbia University - Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory. The IRI has been charged with establishing an International Secretariat, that will be tasked with organizing fundraising and promotion efforts on behalf of the organization. As we enter a new century, it is appropriate to reflect on progress made, lessons learned, and remaining tasks in the realm of climate prediction and forecast application. The 1997-1999 ENSO cycle has offered new opportunities to refine climate-modeling skills while deliberately striving to apply relevant findings to existing societal needs. The IRI, NOAA and many other institutions have made significant advances globally into these areas, reaping substantial rewards along the way. What will the climate of this new century look like and how will we cope? Although uncertain of what to expect, we are encouraged by the scientific achievements of the past decade which have armed us with new tools to help cope with a variable climate system. With a blossoming IRI, increasing interest in, and knowledge of climate affairs, strengthened ties and new commitments worldwide, we are much better poised to face the challenges of the coming years that undoubtedly will arise. IRI: Where We Are Now; Where We Are Going The International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) is now 3 years of age. During that period, we have experienced all the growing pains to which any new organization is subject, along with a few special effects thrown in by Mother Nature: the exceptional 1997/98 El Niņo and the subsequent 1998/99 La Niņa. Despite these trials, we feel that we have made good progress in developing the IRI, and are looking forward to the future. As we make progress, it is fundamental that we remain devoted to the IRI mission and goals. We are actively engaged with the international community in building a unique "end-to-end climate forecast system" that will complement the enhanced observing systems and process studies being implemented by the global scientific community. The IRI evolved from a remarkable convergence of advances in observing systems, theoretical understanding of the El Niņo/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, and coupled modeling of the ocean-atmosphere system. Until the relatively recent past, seasonal-to-interannual variations in climate were not considered predictable in any useful fashion. However, beginning in the late 1970s, observational and diagnostic studies of the ocean and atmosphere began to make it clear that certain behaviors of the coupled system might indeed be predictable, including in particular the El Niņo/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. In 1985, the international Tropical Oceans/Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program was initiated, focusing increased attention on the development of physical/mathematical models of the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific Ocean, as well as the establishment of observing systems to provide the data such models required. As TOGA progressed, the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array was designed and implemented, and models began to show evidence of the capability to actually make useful predictions. Observations from meteorological and oceanographic satellites became available to complete the global observing system. The concept of an IRI emerged around 1989 from a general consensus in the international climate research community involved in TOGA. It was persuasively argued that experimental forecast information could only be valuable if an international institutional mechanism was in place to continually advance research and modeling related to the forecast capabilities, disseminate forecasts on a routine basis, and provide a centralized location for feedback on model forecast results. During the early 1990s, these research results inspired an international group of scientists, led by Dr. A. D. Moura of Brazil, to prepare a plan for an International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, which was presented at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. A Pilot Project was initiated by NOAA's Office of Global Programs in 1993 with training and applications located at the Columbia/Lamont campus and forecasting research located at the Scripps campus, in order to demonstrate feasibility. Over one hundred scientists from 46 countries were trained during that time. The demonstrated successful results of these activities, together with the recommendations put forth by the nearly 300 scientists and representatives of 40 nations and 20 International organizations at the International Forum on Forecasting El Niņo: Launching an International Research Institute (6-8 November 1995, Washington, DC), provided the impetus for the launching of the IRI in 1996. An open competition resulted in selection of a proposal submitted jointly by Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) and Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), and the IRI was established, through a cooperative agreement with NOAA on June 1, 1996. During the initial implementation phase, from 1996-1999, the collaborative SIO-LDEO effort built effectively on the pilot phase. The Experimental Forecast Division (EFD), located at SIO, developed and implemented a forecast system that enabled them to produce regular Net Assessments of expected climate variations beginning in mid-1997. The LDEO component developed more slowly due to the need for extensive recruiting, but by 1998 had begun to make contributions in model development, climate monitoring and dissemination, training and applications. This year has seen the integration of the SIO and LDEO: both the Modeling Research Division (MRD) and the Applications Research Division (ARD) are beginning to be staffed, the Climate Monitoring and Dissemination Division (CMD) is producing the Climate Information Digest and developing a dissemination policy, and the Training Program (TP) is conducting training sessions. The early years of the IRI have been extremely challenging, not only because of the need to grow and integrate the institution, but also because of the occurrence of the strongest El Niņo on record in 1997/98, followed immediately in 1998/99 by a moderate La Niņa. This combination of circumstances required the IRI to attempt actions for which it was not fully prepared. However, with the collaboration of partner institutions in the US, such as the NOAA Climate Prediction Center and Office of Global Programs, and elsewhere, including national meteorological services and the WMO, as well as others, the IRI succeeded in making a substantial, even critical, contribution to the global effort to foretell and mitigate the effects. During the first part of 1999, a great deal of energy has been invested in the expansion of the IRI staff so that each of our divisions will have the critical mass to develop models, make and disseminate forecasts, conduct training, and develop applications. We have conducted a global search for talent, interviewed many excellent candidates, made hiring decisions, and have begun to schedule the arrival of our new associates. As of September 1999, the total IRI staff has grown to 40; up from a beginning year total of about 25. Consequently, all four of our Divisions have sufficient staff to make significant progress. The IRI Directorate has signed Memoranda of Understanding with many emerging partners, including Indonesia, Argentina, Brazil, Japan, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction in the U.S., and the African Centre for Meteorological Applications to Development. From the beginning, Taiwan has been considering participation as a Core Founding Member of the IRI. An Agreement involving Taiwan (the Central Weather Bureau and the National Oceanic Research Center) and NOAA Office of Global Programs and Columbia University is being completed. We are also deeply involved in the effort, coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization, to develop a process and structure that will facilitate the exchange and evaluation of operational forecasts of seasonal-to-interannual (S-I) climate variations. Fruitful collaboration with national, regional and international organizations also includes joint on-site training courses in applications of climate forecasts. This can be exemplified by the recent two courses in Toowoomba, Australia (climate and agriculture) and Bamako, Mali (climate and health), involving the local Meteorological Services (BoM, ACMAD and Mali Meteorological Service, respectively) as well as the WMO Climate Information and Prediction Services. A large effort has been invested recently in arriving at a revised arrangement between the Lamont and Scripps campuses, with a consolidation of the core activities of the IRI into a single location. This past summer many of the personnel of the Experimental Forecast Division from the IRI Scripps campus were relocated to the Lamont campus so as to improve the coordination and cooperation among the components of the IRI, and to reduce costs. The integrated nature and integrative function of the IRI as an "end-to-end" institution requires a strong synergy among all the IRI Units on a project and day-to-day basis. At the same time, the IRI is advancing an enhanced interaction with the Climate Research Division at Scripps to ensure a continued successful partnership. In the years to come, our goal is for the IRI to become an indispensable element of a global partnership to predict S-I climate variations, and to use those predictions for the real benefit of society. We intend to do this by contributing to international efforts aimed at improving the physical models needed for prediction, by producing and disseminating regular forecasts, by providing training in climate and applications science for the global community, and by participating in the development of enduring and valuable applications projects. We expect the IRI Core facility to function very much as a contributor, and, when appropriate, coordinator, for a far larger international effort in all of these areas. The IRI practices the concept of an 'end-to-end forecast system' and is unique in its approaches to linking the physical/environmental sciences to social and economic sciences, performing research understanding impacts and vulnerability, and developing key application projects to demonstrate the value of climate forecasts. Most of the ways in which the IRI will accomplish this will be described by the Division/Program plans. However, a few areas are summarized here. As part of its contribution to the IRI, Columbia University has constructed a new building that will house all IRI personnel and will permit all of these activities to be consolidated in a single modern facility. The building was completed and dedicated on December 8, 1999, and the move of the IRI from a spread of campuses and buildings should be completed early this year. We will be involved in the development and integration of IRI into a broader community-wide network devoted to the prediction of S-I climate variations. A great deal of our effort over the next few years will be required to define the proper role of IRI in this venture, and to plan our contributions. One example of this is provided by the current pressing need for supercomputing capability for the S-I prediction community. The IRI must have access to such a facility, for the research and development required as well as for the production of forecasts. However, it seems clear that a single IRI-owned and operated facility would not be the best solution, since it would prevent the broader community from contributing. Various embryonic efforts aimed at overcoming this problem are already underway, from a community-driven effort to coordinate model software development, to assisting the preparation of a budget initiative to obtain funds for supercomputing. It is likely that many more will be needed. Finally, as the IRI matures, its legal basis, ownership, advisory structure and fund-raising activities will require more attention. Up to now, the IRI has operated in a fashion and internally managed similar to a research project, governed by a Board of Directors representing NOAA, Columbia University and Scripps, and advised by an Advisory Committee and Working Groups reporting to the IRI Director. Approach to other Nations for sponsorship has been conducted by NOAA during the last few years. It is envisaged that soon the IRI will evolve to a mature state, with an explicit legal basis. Ongoing discussions indicate that possibly a not-for-profit corporation will be established under the US law, and a permanent governing and advisory structure set in place. This transition is expected to be challenging, but must be accomplished for the goals of the IRI to be achieved. One aspect of this transition has already begun: an International Secretariat, operated with the assistance of the Office of the Executive Vice Provost of Columbia University, will take on the task of motivating national governments and other institutions around the world to join the current sponsors in supporting the IRI. A job description for a senior officer to lead the International Secretariat has been approved and a search process is now underway. The IRI is at the very beginning of its life. The task before us is immense, but we are enthused and optimistic that, with the assistance of our partner institutions, we will succeed in accomplishing our goals of improving forecasts of seasonal-to-interannual climate variability and developing new knowledge and methods for the application of those forecasts for societal benefit. A Review of the IRI's Progress The IRI was initiated on July 1, 1996 through the signing of a Cooperative Agreement between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Columbia University. The Cooperative agreement was awarded jointly to Columbia University and the University of California, San Diego after a thorough mail and panel review, and site visits to the competing institutions. The IRI was subsequently located on the campuses of Columbia University's Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, and the University of California, San Diego's Scripps Institution of Oceanography. The two sites were recently combined and the IRI is now solely located on the campus of Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. The original Cooperative Agreement committed NOAA to support the IRI at a level of $18,000, 000 over a period of two and one half years. The Cooperative Agreement has, however, been amended and is now due to expire on April 30, 2000, a period of three years and ten months from the original start date and the level of funding has also been increased to $19,000,000. In preparation for signing a renewal Agreement with Columbia University for continued support of the IRI, NOAA conducted a review of the progress of the IRI towards meetings its original goals and its outlook for the future. The review was performed by an external panel consisting of eminent scientists and was held on June 10-11, 1999. At the review, the IRI was requested by NOAA to present its accomplishments over its first three years, but more importantly to present its vision for the future and its "road map" for getting there. The Panel produced a written, as well as oral, report containing recommendations for future suggested refinements to the IRI. The Panel endorsed the emerging vision of the IRI as a research enterprise dedicated to advancing the state of the art of climate prediction and expanding the range of forecast applications, with emphasis on supporting those that benefit the developing world. The main thrust of the Panel's recommendations was to encourage the IRI to articulate this vision more clearly and incorporate it into its funding proposals, recruitment and staff development policies, divisional organization, and facilities planning. NOAA intends to weigh the recommendations of the review panel heavily in guiding the continued implementation of the IRI over the next 3 to 5 years. It is anticipated that a second review will be conducted in another 3-5 years time to affirm the concept of an IRI. NOAA-Office of Global Programs Applications Program Launched in 1995, the NOAA/OGP Pilot Program for the Applications of Climate Forecasts is a group of regionally-focused projects (Latin America, the Caribbean, the South Pacific, Asia-Pacific, and Africa) and one sector-focused project (Climate and Human Health). The suite of activities is designed to provide mechanisms for transforming research results into information useful to representatives of climate-sensitive sectors, and to distribute that information to key decision-makers. Designed in collaboration with interested individuals, institutions and countries around the world, the objectives of the Pilot Applications Program are to advance:
Proof of Concept The Climate Outlook Fora grew out of the broader-based applications research projects designed to advance the use of climate information. The majority of these projects emerged from NOAA/OGP-led planning workshops, and are matched with funds from participating countries and regional and international organizations. Regional and Sector Applications Projects LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (LAC): Activities over the last year have built on the connections and advancements made during the 1997-1998 El Niņo event in the area of information production and dissemination. ĘSeveral regions within Latin America and the Caribbean have continued the Climate Outlook Process (e.g. Caribbean, Mesoamerica, Southeast South America), and are developing institutional mechanisms such as Regional Steering Committees to ensure a systematic approach to the enhancement and use of the product as well as the overall process. ĘThe LAC applications program has also been extensively involved in the design and implementation of activities in Central America that are intended to increase the capacity of the region to cope effectively with climate variations and extreme events, such as 1998's Hurricane Mitch. ĘThe majority of this research is conducted with the support of the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) and a host of national institutions. (Contact Lisa Farrow, NOAA-Office of Global Programs, tel: 301 427-2089 x 132; fax: 301-427-2082; email: lisa.farrow@noaa.gov). AFRICA: As a result of strong partnerships with the Drought Monitoring Centres (DMCs) in Harare and Nairobi, and the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD), there has been a successful transition of Regional Climate Outlook Fora and related training and applications activities in the Greater Horn of Africa, West Africa, and southern Africa to regional ownership and multilateral funding. All three regions have organized and implemented Regional Outlook Fora and conducted pre-season forecast training and post-season verification training in partnership with NOAA, IRI and the WMO. The DMCs in eastern and southern Africa are now playing a central role in reviewing and managing pilot applications projects. Applications highlights from the current year include the discovery that radio was by far the most common source of weather and climate information in many countries, indicating that this would be a natural focal point for future forecast dissemination campaigns. (Contact: Macol Stewart, NOAA-Office of Global Programs, tel: 301-427 2089 x 144; fax: 301-427-2082; email: macol.stewart@noaa.gov). SOUTH EAST ASIA: Focus has been on the regional capacity of the climate forecast community to build a system to help the disaster management community prepare for and mitigate effects of extreme climate events. Working with the ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Center (ASMC) in Singapore, activities are continuing to implement a validated state of the art regional model at ASMC and run associated training courses for forecasters in the region. The Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) in Bangkok is developing a general approach for integrating national climate information networks to reduce vulnerability to climate extremes in three pilot countries (Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines), with the lessons learned to be shared and ultimately inform an overall strategy that is suitable for other countries in the region. (Contact: Candyce Clark, NOAA-Office of Global Programs, tel: 301-427-2089 x 114; fax: 301 427-2082; email: candyce.clark@noaa.gov). PACIFIC: Discussions have been held with the South Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP), South Pacific Commission (SOPAC) and others, on the need to develop a Pacific Climate Information System. Such a climate information system will provide an integrated, Pacific-wide effort designed to improve the links between the scientific/technical providers of climate observations, predictions and assessments and the potential users of that information who are charged with helping communities, businesses and government agencies in the Pacific respond to the challenges and opportunities of climate variability and change. The Pacific ENSO Applications Center (PEAC) in Honolulu is moving towards a more operational organization, and will look to work with organizations and countries in the region. (Contact: Candyce Clark, NOAA-Office of Global Programs, tel: 301-427-2089 x 114; fax: 301-427-2082; email: candyce.clark@noaa.gov). CLIMATE AND HEALTH: NOAA-OGP's activities in the climate and health arena began several years ago, and initially focussed on small pilot projects aimed at fostering an improved understanding of the public health sector and the potential value of climate information. The ENSO Experiment was designed to both elucidate scientific aspects of climate and health relationships as well as provide a mechanism for building community. One next step will be to develop a strategy for integrating monitoring, observation and analysis studies designed to provide a more comprehensive dynamical understanding of a specific climate, ecology, health pathway. NOAA-OGP, in collaboration with several U.S. agencies and the private sector, is issuing a joint funding announcement for multidisciplinary research on climate variability and human health. (Contact: Juli Trtanj, NOAA-Office of Global Programs, tel: 301-427-2089 x 134; fax: 301-427-2082; email: juli.trtanj@noaa.gov). Future Directions If you would like to learn more about or become involved with the overall NOAA's Program for the Applications of Climate Forecasts, please contact Candyce Clark, Program Manager NOAA-Office of Global Programs, tel: 301-427-2089 x 114; fax: 301-427-2082; email: candyce.clark@noaa.gov. The NOAA/OGP Climate Information Project At the beginning of the 1997-1998 El Niņo event, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration began the Rapid Response Project (RRP) as a means to gather, condense, and consolidate useful climate information for various government agencies and office collaborators. Now, two years since its inception, the Rapid Response Project activities are still running, but under the aegis of the Climate Information Project (CIP). In addition to providing other agencies with better access to climate information, the CIP also maintains a variety of experimental activities aimed at creative solutions for the dissemination of forecasts, observations, and other climate-related information. The CIP maintains an archive of its near-daily summaries of climate and weather impacts. Recently the CIP developed an extensive website aimed at providing basic climate information and tutorials in the not-so-typical internet format. We would welcome any comments or suggestions about the site content and design. As it is in its infancy there is plenty of room to grow. Please visit us at http://www.cip.ogp.noaa.gov The Climate Information Project is supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Global Programs (NOAA-OGP) as well as the United States Agency for International Development, Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID-OFDA). NOAA's Human Dimensions Research Element: Our Current Strategy The NOAA Human Dimensions of Global Change Research program supports field and model-based research focused on human adjustment to climate variability with an emphasis on the use of forecast information in decision-making. Within the context of global change research, we are pursuing this focus for a number of reasons. First, regardless of how human activity manifests itself on the climate system, individuals, institutions, and societies will pursue means of adaptation to climatic impacts. Second, investigating how people currently prepare for the upcoming season and how they adjust to drought, floods, fires, and other impacts of climate variability from year to year offers a natural laboratory for testing hypotheses of human adaptation. Third, the relatively new technology of model-based climate forecasting, although currently of limited skill for some regions of the world, offers the potential for society to alter its adjustment techniques. Of course, society's ability to benefit from forecasts over the long run and at various levels of decision-making will depend on a range of social and economic factors that provide constraints and incentives to the use of information, as well as to the extent to which the climate information matches society's needs. A program of external research in this area is important in that it provides objective data gathering and analysis of how climate information is being or could be used, why in many cases it is not being used, and the type of analyses (e.g., vulnerability studies, economic analysis) needed to ensure more effective use of forecast information. Starting with the premise that a forecast does not have value unless it affects human behavior and that more information does not necessarily make every facet of society better off, the program aims to address the following issues:
The program aims to advance the scientific knowledge base on human adaptation to climate by applying theories of risk perception, decision- making under uncertainty, dissemination and adoption of new technology, vulnerability of marginal populations, economics of game theory and value of information, and other research methods to the application of climate information. In addition, an important objective of the program is to provide feedback to the climate science and forecasting communities on the usefulness of the current information being produced and how to make it of more use, and the type of information that would be of most value. The program includes a variety of ongoing and completed projects that develop simulation models to investigate the potential value of information and options for adjusting management practices in various sectors. We are now seeing more projects that combine social-science based survey techniques, which are centered on interviews in the field with decision-makers and forecasters, with simulation models of management techniques. The majority of recent projects have analyzed the agricultural sector from modeling of decisions at the individual farm level to international markets, the fisheries sector from artisanal to commercial fisheries, or water management at various levels of decision-making. Areas that have not received as much attention and could provide unique perspectives on the use of information are the following: the energy sector, especially given the changing structure of the US markets; commodity futures and other financial markets; the implications of indigenous forecasting methods within native communities; the liability issues associated with forecast production and dissemination; comparative work across regions; intersectoral analyses; and decision-making in the public health sector. In particular, the complexity of the linkages between climate and health are only beginning to be investigated and therefore require a special emphasis in the coming years. With support from NOAA, the National Research Council of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences has produced a report, Making Climate Forecasts Matter, which lays out the state of knowledge and the critical gaps to be addressed in this area of research. A series of scientific questions pertaining to the potential benefits, dissemination, and consequences of climate forecast information are highlighted, as are the need to evaluate past responses to forecasts and the consideration of long term research sites for the study of these issues. NOAA has begun to address the scientific questions raised in the NRC report and will continue to do so in the coming years. As its long-term goal, NOAA's human dimensions component aims to address decision-making in the face of a constantly changing climate system across a range of relevant time scales. As the program grows, we anticipate supporting a broader agenda on how society can cope more effectively with, and benefit from, the dynamics of a variable climate. For those interested in more information about the program, please visit the web site at http://www.ogp.noaa.gov/mpe/csi/econhd/index.htm. NOAA-Office of Global Programs: The Regional Assessments Program Regional Integrated Assessments The major tasks in conducting RIAs include: 1. Characterizing the current state of knowledge of climate variability on all timescales, social and environmental impacts, and levels of criticality within a region or sectors within a region; 2. Assessing vulnerability to climate on the seasonal and decadal to centennial scales including how social transformations such as demographic changes influence social and environmental vulnerability to climate risks including abrupt changes; 3. Developing pilot projects and prototypes for demonstration of opportunities, acceptability and use of climate information and to enhance collaboration among researchers, decision-makers and the public; 4. Improving decision-support dialogues and developing awareness with respect to climate impacts on regional system outputs, capacity for action, and management e.g. water, agriculture, fisheries, energy, human health and private sector investments for enhanced economic productivity; 5. Iteratively refining mechanisms of interaction and learning among the research and programmatic communities, through clearer problem definitions, understanding of public goals and expectations, and capacity building to realize the benefits afforded by developments in climate research, products and services. The NOAA-OGP Regional Assessments Program Assessments express judgments on the reliability of knowledge about linkages at the environment-society interface and on the robustness of the data e.g. What do we know and what do we need to know? How sensitive is this knowledge to external and internal perturbations? How well do we understand these relationships? Do we know them well enough for effective decision-making, etc? Assessments thus require innovative partnerships among a spectrum of interests (Federal, State, local and private etc.) to enable organizational capacity within a region for developing accurate (i.e. identifying risks, uncertainties, critical knowledge gaps etc.) balanced syntheses, and services on an ongoing basis. As such, the NOAA-OGP Regional Assessments Program relies heavily on consolidating the results and data from ongoing NOAA disciplinary process research (in Physical sciences, Economic and Human Dimensions, and Applications), already funded in a region, under an integrative framework. From the standpoint of the Regional Assessments Program, the phases involved in developing a regional assessment system include: Years 1-2 Team building, regional definition, identification of critical interdisciplinary issues and affected groups, assessment of climate-related knowledge to date, expectations; Years 2-3 Start-up projects: refining and developing preliminary studies: definitions of region, criticality, vulnerability, sensitivity, capacity. Developing criteria for interaction with stakeholders and for self-evaluation, etc. Program Evaluation; Years 4- Fully integrate lines of communication and research developed in preliminary studies and expansion to other sectors, including enlargement of region and/or scope if necessary. Inclusion of other public and private agencies and institutions as partners etc. Given the system uncertainties that have been identified at the environment-society and the science-policy interfaces, knowledge integration and decision-driven activities must employ multi-method, contextual, and problem-solving approaches to increase the variety of ways in which learning and action occurs. Ongoing assessment activities allow for the incorporation of new knowledge generated by observed and forecasted variations and changes in the ocean-atmosphere-land, ecological, and social systems. Successful proposals have focused on critical climate-sensitive issues that require interdisciplinary collaboration (build linkages between existing disciplinary knowledge), have well defined teams and tasks, identify explicit stakeholder groups, interaction mechanisms and barriers, and are specific as to how coordination, integration and, evaluation within each project are to occur. Funds are also targeted towards research on comparative studies of assessment processes, transferability of approaches etc. At present, there are five regional assessments activities funded by NOAA-OGP. These are focused on the Pacific Northwest, the Southwest, California, Inter-Mountain West, and the Southeast regions of the United States. As expected, those funded first have begun to make inroads to meeting the goals of the Regional Assessments Program. Those in pilot or preliminary stages focus on clarification of initially defined critical regional issues, team building, developing cooperative stakeholder linkages, and data assimilation. Pilot efforts will undergo comprehensive reviews and evaluation for consideration of expansion to full assessments. The Pacific Northwest Assessment, now in its fourth year, is centered at the University of Washington. This project focuses on climate and weather-related linkages to marine ecosystems (chiefly Pacific salmon), hydrology and water resources including hydropower, forest resources, coastal resources and health. In agreement with guidelines from the NOAA-Office of Global Programs, strong efforts have been made to establish working relationships and locally-based external funding with resource management, cultural, energy and educational institutions and sectors in the region. The Southwest Assessment, beginning its third year, is centered at the University of Arizona. The research and applications foci are on hydro-climatic influences (El Niņo-Southern Oscillation events, Southwest Monsoon etc.) on floods and droughts in the Southwest including Native American lands, range-land management, trans-boundary and urban issues in water resources management for private and non-profit sectors. Other activities funded by this Program include, the Interior Mountain West project focusing on water resources on the Colorado Plateau (at the University of Colorado, Boulder), the California Applications Project focusing on climate and hydrologic studies for streamflow forecasting in the energy and water resources sectors (at Scripps Institute of Oceanography) and climatic impacts on agriculture in the U.S. Southeast (at a consortium of Florida-based universities: University of Miami, University of Florida, and Florida State University). Studies are also funded on assessment design and other cross-cutting themes. For further information please contact: Roger S. Pulwarty, Program Manager NOAA-Office of Global Programs, 1100 Wayne Avenue, Suite 1225, Silver Spring, MD 20910; Telephone: 301-427-2089 x103; Fax: 301-427-2082, e-mail: roger.pulwarty@noaa.gov Proposal for a Climate Affairs Program Are universities ready for an academic course concentration under the label of "climate affairs"? I personally think so. The purpose of a climate affairs program would be to allow students to gain recognition for having taken a set of courses to enhance their knowledge of climate affairs. The word "affairs" was purposely chosen: it is defined in the dictionary as "matters or concerns vaguely stated." Climate affairs is an umbrella notion that encompasses climate change, climate impacts, climate policy, and (for lack of a better term) climate ethics. Courses already are offered on the atmosphere, the ocean, Gaia, climate policy, global change, and environmental ethics. These courses include information on some aspects of climate affairs, but they do not provide the breadth of information that a student will need to best understand how atmospheric processes affect human activities and how human activities affect the atmosphere. The idea for a climate affairs activity in an academic setting was inspired by the University of Washington's School of Marine Affairs. Invited to its 25th anniversary celebration in spring 1998, I became acquainted with many of its graduates--now ecologists, political scientists, legal scholars and practitioners, engineers, sociologists, fisheries experts, urban planners, coastal zone developers, among others. They all came out of the same program over the years and are thriving in their chosen careers--and they were getting along in spite of their different political and ideological persuasions about human interactions with the marine environment. So, I thought, could this program serve as a model for those of us focused on climate and climate-related issues? Is the development of a "School of Climate Affairs" too farfetched for consideration? As of the mid-1960s, there was not one formally established academic marine affairs program. Today there are more than fifty. The first ones emerged in the late 1960s, and I suspect that their development had a lot to do with the ongoing discussions to develop a "Law of the Sea." In those discussions, a need was recognized for expertise in many aspects of the marine environment deliberations within and among countries. Academics with some degree of foresight realized that this area was fertile for research, application of research findings, and therefore employment opportunities. Today, one could argue that governments are in the midst of creating a "Law of the Atmosphere." Concern about greenhouse-gas emissions and global warming of the atmosphere, stratospheric ozone depletion, tropical deforestation, El Niņo forecasting and impacts, and extreme climate-related events (droughts, floods, fires, infectious disease outbreaks, severe storms) have been added to the traditional concerns about the atmospheric environment (air pollution, transboundary atmospheric pollution, acid rain). An increasing number of economic and social sectors around the globe share these concerns. Insurance companies, the energy sector, water resource planners, investors, public welfare and humanitarian organizations, disaster relief workers, chemical corporations, and government agencies, to name a few, are seeking people with such knowledge. Governments have especially shown an interest in climate impact studies as a result of the recent El Niņo event (1997-98), as well as a result of the apparent increase in damages resulting from climate-related extreme events related to the interannual variability of climate and climate-related processes. The point is that there is now, and will continue to be, a growing "thirst" by societies worldwide for information about the physical, biological, and societal aspects of the climate system. Industries as well as governments will need expertise that may not now exist. The question then follows: is it time for the academic community to consider whether students would benefit from an academic program focusing on "climate affairs", a program that, like marine affairs, encourages scientific study and the application of that science to address societal needs? I think so Ð do you? The world of El Niņo expanded sharply with the forecasts of the 1997-98 event. Interest in the phenomenon was sustained as a result of the forecasts and eventual development of a cold event. So, here we are at the beginning of the twenty first century, and the public as well as decision-makers in government and industry are primed for news about the next event. One of the key challenges in the new world of heightened El Niņo awareness is to sustain and expand that interest in the phenomenon between events, and not only while they are being "hyped" in the media. As the ESIG/NCAR prepares to receive the charge of publishing the ENSO Signal, we do so with the hope of using this publication as a means to undertake this challenge. Coverage of future issues of the ENSO Signal will seek to parallel the approach to "climate affairs" shared above and will therefore encompass issues related to ENSO science, ENSO impacts, ENSO policy, and ENSO ethics. If you would like to receive more information on the ENSO Signal or would like to be placed on our mailing list please contact: Djan Stewart, Managing Editor ESIG/NCAR, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000; Telephone: 303-497-8134; Fax: 303-497-8125, e-mail: jan@ucar.edu Production Staff Tonna-Marie Surgeon Jim Buizer Hardcopy Layout |
| OGP Home | | | Search OGP | | | Site Index | | | What's New |
|
|
||||||
| About OGP | | | Programs | | | Library | | | Grants |