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to IRI Homepage A Quarterly Publication
Issue 11/November 1998
- Remarks from the Chairman by J. Michael Hall
- Regional Summary of 1997/98 NOAA Pilot Applications Activities
Latin America & the Caribbean
-California Pilot Project on the Use of Climate Information
-NOAA's Office of Global Programs: ENSO Rapid Response Project (RRP)
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Pilot Program for the Application of Climate Forecasts has gained valuable experience since the November 1995 International Forum on Forecasting El Niño. The program was created and promoted through strong regional partnerships to advance the incorporation of climate forecast information into decision-making practices in countries directly impacted by major climate events such as El Niño. Due to on-going research and development by organizations like the International Research Institute (IRI), the science of early-warning forecasting has advanced tremendously in regards to lead-time and accuracy. During this progression, the Pilot Program has promoted the use of this new capability to address practical socio-economic issues related to El Niño.
Although the phenomenon originates in the tropical pacific region, El Niño effects of flooding and drought are felt world-wide with several areas having greater impact than others. Several specific regions (Latin America and the Caribbean; Africa; the Austral-Asia region; and the South Pacific) displaying dramatic physical and soci-economic impacts stemming from El Niño have been identified as the main focus of the Pilot Program. The Program has supported numerous workshops and related training exercises in these regions which focused on the production, dissemination, interpretation and use of forecasts information into decision-making procedures. In addition, a climate and human health component is being developed as part of the regional applications activities to study the human health impacts of the 1997/98 ENSO event and to explore the potential for applying forecast information in the public health arena.
Consequently, the emergence of the 1997/98 El Niño event, has given the Program great momentum. The recent event is recorded as one of the strongest to date. As the event continued to progress and precipitation and temperature conditions around the world reacted accordingly, NOAA and its partners recognized a rare opportunity to speed up the systematic approach it was creating to address forecasting and applications issues.
Along with regional applications activities, the California Pilot Project on the Use of Climate Information, emerged during the 1997/98 event. The Project is a research component designed to learn if and how decision-makers in climate sensitive sectors of California can use climate information to better prepare for and respond to the impacts of climate variability. The 1997/98 event also prompted the creation of the NOAA/OGP ENSO Rapid Response Project (RRP) which serves as an interface between producers and users of climate information worldwide, by working with the IRI and several other forecasting centers to provide monthly and other periodic updates of ENSO-related products.
At the same time, the ENSO Signal continued to serve as a vehicle for those involved in climate science to communicate experiences related to applications activities and other activities associated with the recent 1997/98 El Niño event. We intended for the Signal to serve as a medium for worldwide organizations to highlight updates on their preparations and response to the event; to provide website information to readers who wished to access up-to-date information on the unfolding El Niño; to provide summaries of Climate Outlook Fora in Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia and Africa; and to feature climate application "success stories" in places such as Ecuador and Peru.
Our hope is that advances in climate sciences will help promote sustainable economic growth and development, as well as to assist in reducing vulnerability in regions affected by El Niño and other similar climate phenomena. However, the value and actual use of climate information will depend on our understanding of the social and economic context in which climate-sensitive decisions are made.
The science community has learned a significant amount during this past event that will ultimately contribute to the further advancement of climate research and forecast application techniques. By building on this unique experience, we are creating greater opportunities for increased community involvement in climate science by decision-makers and potential users of climate information.
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Latin America and the Caribbean
The Americas are among the regions most immediately and directly impacted by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The U.S. Agency for International Development's Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) estimates that the number of people directly impacted in Peru alone by the 1997-1998 El Niño event ranges from 500,000 to 600,000, with hundreds of lives lost due to flooding and mudslides. USAID/OFDA has provided close to $3 million to Peru in response to ENSO-related flashfloods, mudslides, avalanches and sea surges, and $10 million to the country in P.L. 480 Title I food assistance in addition to $96, 573 in Title II food assistance. In spite of the high financial and human costs associated with this event, USAID/OFDA officials believe that the situation could have been far worse, had they not had access to ENSO forecast information through NOAA and the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI).
Given the unprecedented opportunity for advance planning, NOAA/OGP's pilot program for the application of forecast information increased it's efforts in the highly vulnerable region of the Americas. During this period, NOAA/OGP ongoing research and applications activities were enhanced by a series of Climate Outlook Fora, Applications Workshops and Conferences convened in conjunction with several regional and international institutions such as the Inter American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI), and the USAID/OFDA. In addition, each activity was strongly supported by national institutions.
The primary objective of these activities was to develop and communicate a consensus seasonal climate outlook for the various sub-regions of Latin America and the Caribbean, and to explore with decision-makers and researchers ways to apply this information to preparedness and mitigation efforts. In addition, the activities were designed to 1) identify gaps in information and technical capability; 2) facilitate research cooperation and data exchange within and between regions; 3) improve coordination within the climate forecasting community; and 4) create and enhance a regular dialogue between the producers and users of climate information.
The following is a list of activities conducted during the 1997-1998 El Niño event in Latin America and the Caribbean:
• Pacific South America Climate Outlook Forum, Applications Workshop and Conference, Lima, Peru (October 28-30, 1997)• Southeast South America Climate Outlook Forum, Applications Workshop and Conference, Montevideo, Uruguay (December 9-12, 1997)
• Northeast South America Climate Outlook Forum, Applications Workshop and Conference, Fortaleza, Brazil (January 19-21, 1998)
• Climate Outlook Forum for the Mesoamericas, Panama City, Panama (May 18-19, 1998)
• Climate Outlook Forum and Natural Disaster Preparedness Discussion, Kingston, Jamaica (May 21-22, 1998)
These efforts were supported by insight and methodologies generated by ongoing pilot activities in the region, including:
• Incorporation of ENSO Forecasts into Reservoir Operation and Hydroelectric Power Distribution Procedures (Colombia, Costa Rica, Panama, US)• Application of Multiple Lead-time Climate Predictions in the Central America and Caribbean Regions (Costa Rica, Mexico, US)
• Variations and Spatial and Temporal Precipitation Patterns in the Trade Convergence Region (Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Ecuador, Panama, US)
• International Study of the Health Effects of ENSO in the Americas (Argentina, Brazil, US)
• Climate, Climate Forecasting and Sugar Production in Trinidad and Tobago (Trinidad and Tobago, US)
These projects and the recent El Niño event clearly demonstrate the need and potential for a long term strategy for the generation, communication and application of regional forecast information on a regular basis in the Latin America and Caribbean regions, which will be facilitated by the creation of a Pan-American Climate Information System (PACIS). A thorough evaluation of the Climate Outlook Fora, including methodology and usefulness of the information produced as part of the NOAA pilot program is currently underway, and will help identify the necessary framework for the PACIS.
NOAA/OGP's African activities shaped the global response to the 1997/98 El Niño event, fundamentally changing the way that climate information is produced, distributed, and utilized, not only in Africa, but around the world. The Regional Climate Outlook Fora which galvanized the climate forecasting and applications communities worldwide during the 1997/98 El Niño originated from NOAA/OGP's Workshop on Climate-Related Vulnerability in Southern Africa (1-4 October 1996, Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe). During that workshop, NOAA/OGP convened the broad community of scientists, practitioners, and decision-makers who will be the principal producers and users of climate forecasts met to design a practical agenda for the application of climate information to reduce uncertainties in policy decisions in the context of contemporary southern Africa. It was suggested that, as part of the development of capability for climate prediction and forecast utilization, a Regional Climate Outlook Forum meet to analyze the variety of available forecast products and arrive at a consensus assessment of the state of the climate for the upcoming season.
Prior to the first meeting of the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) users in southern Africa were faced with up to a dozen different seasonal forecasts which were presented in different formats, with a variety of techniques and lead times. Through SARCOF, NOAA/OGP organized the regional and international forecasting community to provide regional users with an expert assessment of the upcoming rainy season in a format which expressed the probabilistic nature of climate forecasts. SARCOF activities provided a regional framework for coordinated production, dissemination, interpretation and use of forecast information in southern Africa as well as a framework in which to assess the effectiveness of the season's activities and translate lessons learned into future actions. SARCOF activities were provided vital climate services to the region and built a sense of regional community and ownership that the World Bank has agreed to fund SARCOF in 1998/99 and regional institutions have assumed full responsibility for SARCOF's organization and continued development.
OGP's initiation of SARCOF activities is unique in the context of climate forecasting applications because, for the first time, it brought the regional and international forecasting and applications communities together around the real-time problems of forecasting and planning for a specific El Niño event. The importance of this activity is evidenced by the proliferation of Outlook Fora around the globe. The success of the first SARCOF meeting inspired regional institutions in the Greater Horn of Africa and West Africa to organize similar Fora and served as a model for subregions in Latin America and Asia which incorporated Outlook Fora into their El Niño response activities. In each region the Outlook Fora created a sense of community among forecasters and decision-makers as they worked together to address the potential impacts of the 1997/98 El Niño. These Fora not only coordinated responses to the 1997/98 El Niño on a region-by-region basis, but they also provided an international context which coordinated response on a global scale, providing important links between widespread regions.
CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORA IN AFRICA 1997/98
• Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) Pre-Season Meeting, 8-12 September 1997, Kadoma, Zimbabwe• SARCOF Mid-Season Assessment Meeting, 18-19 December 1997, Windhoek, Namibia
• The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum for 1998 and Implications for Regional Food Security, 9-13 February 1998, Nairobi, Kenya
• West Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (PRESAO-1), 4-8 May 1998, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire. Pre-Forum Training Course, March-April 1998, Niamey, Niger.
• SARCOF Post-Season Assessment Meeting, 12-15 May 1998, Pilanesberg, South Africa
OUTLOOK FORA PLANNED IN AFRICA 1998/99
• Second Greater Horn of Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum for the September - December 1998 Rainfall Season, Mombasa, Kenya, 2-4 September 1998. A pre-forum capacity building workshop has also been organized 31 August - 1 September 1998.• SARCOF Pre-Season Meeting, Harare, Zimbabwe, 28 September - 2 October 1998.
• PRESAO-1 Post-Season Assessment Meeting, Dakar, December 1998.
• Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) Mid-Season Assessment Meeting, December 1998.
• Third Greater Horn of Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum for the March - May 1999 Rainfall Season, February 1999.
• Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) Post-Season Assessment Meeting, May 1999.
• West Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (PRESAO-2), May 1999.
PILOT PROJECTS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA 1997/98
NOAA/OGP's leading role in launching Regional Climate Outlook Fora was integrated with its Pilot Program in the Applications of Climate Forecasting in Africa. Many of the Pilot Applications Projects listed below fed into the Outlook Fora, while others grew out of the Fora and associated discussions. Projects completed and underway during the 1997/98 El Niño include the following:
• "Development and Evaluation of Methods and Models for the Application of Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts to Water Resources Management in the Winterton Irrigation District of South Africa," University of Natal, In Progress.• "Combining Risk Map Analysis and Climate Prediction: Effects of El Niño on Rural Households in Zimbabwe," Save the Children Fund, USAID/OFDA, IRI, Completed.
• "Assessing Current and Potential Use of Climate Forecasts for Communal Farm Management in Zimbabwe," Columbia University, University of Zimbabwe, Drought Monitoring Centre, Agritex, USAID/OFDA, In Progress.
• "Using Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Farm Management: A Guide for Agricultural Extension Agents in Zimbabwe," Columbia University, University of Zimbabwe, Drought Monitoring Centre, Agritex, Zimbabwe Department of Meteorological Services, Zimbabwe National Early Warning Unit, USAID/FEWS, USAID/OFDA, Completed.
• "Training on Seasonal Forecast Interpretation for Agritex Extensionists," Drought Monitoring Centre, Agritex, Zimbabwe Department of Meteorological Services, In Progress.
• "South Africa Malaria Forecasting Project," National Malaria Research Council, University of Zululand, D. LeSueur, initial phase Complete, ongoing phase In Progress.
• "Surveillance and Monitoring of Environmental and Health Consequences of the 1997/98 El Niño in Mozambique," Columbia University, Harvard Medical School, IRI, Ministry of Agriculture, Mozambique Meteorological Service, In Progress.
• "The Role of ENSO in Malaria Transmission in Kakamega, Kenya," GCTE, ICIPE, Kenya Medical Research Institute, In Progress.
• "Applications of Climate Forecasts to Health and Disease in Southern Africa," Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, ENRICH, Completed.
• "Improving Epidemic Preparedness for Malaria Control in Africa through Seasonal Forecasting and the Monitoring of Climate Variability," Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, WHO AFRO Southern African Malaria Control Initiative, In Progress.
• "Analysis of Responses to SARCOF Questionnaire: Pilanesberg Participant Survey," UK Natural Resources Institute, ENRICH, OGP, Completed.
• "SARCOF and the User Community: A Survey of Responses and Reactions in the Agricultural Sectors of Namibia, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe," CICERO, ENRICH, in progress.
• "The Sensitivity of Specific Agricultural Activities in Zambia and Tanzania to ENSO-Related Weather and Climate Anomalies," University of East Anglia, Commonwealth Development Corporation, ENRICH, completed.
• "Information and Drought Preparedness: Responses to Increased Risk of Drought in Southern Africa," SOS Sahel, DFID, ENRICH, Completed.
• "Assessing the Economic Value of Forecast Information in Southern Africa," UKMO, IRI, ENRICH, Completed.
• "Forecast Quality, Forecast Applications, and Forecast Value: Cases from Southern African Seasonal Forecasts," IRI, UKMO, In Progress.
As the 1997/98 El Niño event developed, NOAA/OGP working with the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC), hosted an Asian Regional Meeting on El Niño Related Crises. The event (February 1998, Bangkok) was sponsored by the USAID/OFDA. The primary focus of the meeting was to discuss capability enhancement in forecasts of El Niño generated weather patterns, regionally and internationally, both in the short and long terms, as well as early warning, impact assessment, public education and information and contingency planning. It was preceded by a Climate Outlook Forum where the primary outcome of the meeting was to endorse the establishment of a Climate Information System for the South East Asian Region to Enhance Decision-Making and Reduce Disasters.
Participants focused on the importance of long-lead forecasts in alleviating social and economic costs related to climate variations, and the need for political and financial support to establish an integrated regional climate information system. The need for regional cooperation and its long-term benefits to the Asian community was also emphasized. Future activities include the facilitation of a Regional Climate Forum; the establishment of a Pilot Regional Information Clearing House at ADPC; and the development of a long-term multi-institutional program on "Regional Capacity Building for Climate Forecasting and Applications."
These efforts are supported by ongoing pilot applications activities in the Austral-Asia region, which include:
-Training module on the use of climate information for Asia Disaster managers-Retrospective hindcasts of significant historical hydro-meteorological disasters
-Inventory of regional climate and application institutions
-Press kit and/or public information package
-Farm level decisions in NE Thailand dryland ice management
-Impact study of climate variability on rice production in the Asia-Pacific region
-Simulation analysis of seasonal forecast influence on rice yield (field scale) linking crop models with seasonal climate forecast models
-Decisions associated with climate variability relating to pest, disease and weed management
-Study of precipitation variability in the Mekong River Basin in relation to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and its utility for application
-Study of annual and seasonal-to-interannual variability in precipitation in the Austral-asia region (1978-1998)
-Forecasting the risk of dengue fever epidemics in the Asia-Pacific region
-Risk assessment of 1998/99 mudslide vulnerability in Indonesia
In 1995, NOAA began to explore the application of climate forecasts information in the Pacific Islands through its support of the Pacific ENSO Applications Center (PEAC), a pilot project established to conduct research and produce information products on climate variability related to the ENSO climate cycle in the U.S.-affiliated Pacific Islands. The PEAC a is cooperative effort between NOAA, the University of Hawaii, the University of Guam and the Pacific Basin Development Council. The PEAC's primary objectives include:
-Research and Production of information products on climate variability-Outreach and Education activities
-Pacific ENSO Update newsletter -produced quarterly, distributed to over 500 interested parties
-Building Institutional Linkages
The development of PEAC's strong working and institutional relationship since its inception positioned it well to respond to the 1997/98 El Niño event by providing useful climate information throughout the region. The Pacific Islands lie in the heart of ENSO territory and are directly affected by its associated rainfall and temperature changes. The 1997/98 El Niño event brought about drastic wet conditions and tropical storm development in the region which affected areas such as the Marshall Islands and eastern Indonesia.
Following is a summary of workshops and meetings in the region stemming from the 1997/98 event and related Pilot Application activities.
March 1997-Present
-March 1997 - Pacific ENSO Update alert of El Niño conditions-July 1997 - Participated in Pilot Activity Design Workshop and Pacific Science Association Inter-Congress
-August 1997-South Pacific Regional Environment Program Conference on Climate Change in the Pacific
-Site Visits to brief Ministers and Heads of State (Guam, Palau, Micronesia-Chuuk, Yap, Pohnpei, Kosrae, Marshall Islands, Samoa, Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas Islands)
-Continued quarterly distribution of the Pacific ENSO Update newsletter
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In July 1997, the NOAA/OGP Pilot Program began vigorously coordinating the ENSO Experiment, the first sectorally focused rather than regionally centered activity undertaken by NOAA/OGP. This project is an interdisciplinary research effort to study the human health impacts of the 1997/98 ENSO event, and to explore the potential for applying forecast information in the public health arena. The impetus for the ENSO Experiment originated from participants at the American Academy of Microbiology sponsored colloquium, Climate Variability and Human Health: An Interdisciplinary Perspective, held June 1997 in Montego Bay, Jamaica. One of the primary recommendations of the meeting was to use the 1997/98 ENSO event as a natural laboratory to assess the influence of ENSO-related changes in climate on infectious disease threats to human health. This recommendation laid the foundation for launching the ENSO Experiment.
The overarching objective of the ENSO Experiment is to examine the relationship between climate variability and human health, and to explore the potential for using climate forecast information to provide early-warning of conditions posing a health threat. In particular, this experiment has four primary goals:
-To assess the impact of the 1997/98 ENSO event on human health;-To enhance the dialogue among the climate, ecology, and health research communities and end users of forecast information
-To document the use of forecast information in the health arena during the ENSO event; and
-To identify additional research and monitoring needs and future research requirements.
Approximately 25 research activities under the ENSO Experiment umbrella address infectious diseases around the world including cholera, dengue, malaria, hanta virus, diarrheal disease and other water-borne diseases. Studies range from field epidemiology to historical analysis from modelling to mapping. Domestic and international partners include academia, governments, international institutions, and the private sector. NOAA/OGP has worked to enhance cross disciplinary dialogue and to develop strong inter-agency and private sector partnerships.
Research activities of the ENSO Experiment include:
Water-Borne Disease
-Influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Epidemiology and Ecology of V. Cholera in Bangladesh;-Influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Epidemiology and Ecology of V. Cholera in Peru;
-El Niño and Cryptosporidium in the Eastern United States
-Incidence of Water-borne and Water-related disease in Florida During the Current El Niño and previous El Niño years;
-Marine Ecological Disturbances-North America Eastern Seaboard;
-The Relationship of ENSO and Water-borne and Water-related Disease in the Tropical Pacific;
-Hospital Admission Rates due to Diarrheal Disease in Lima, Peru during the 1997/98 ENSO event;
-Historical Analysis of Cholera Dynamics in the Bengal Presidency, 1870-1940, in Relation to ENSO and Rainfall
Vector-Borne Disease
-Relationship of ENSO to Seasonality and Peaks in Dengue--Global overview, selected sites;-Incorporating ENSO and Weather Data in Dengue Transmission Model--Texas-Puerto Rico, Louisiana;
-Exploring the Correlations Between El Niño and Dengue in Peru;
-The Influence of ENSO and the Spatial Distribution of Dengue in Peru;
-Forecasting the Risk of Dengue Fever Epidemics in the Asia-Pacific Region;
-Incorporating ENSO and Weather Variables to Improve Dengue Transmission Model in Bangkok: The Early Warning Potential;
-Southern Africa Malaria Forecasting Project;
-Will ENSO Increase Malaria in the East African Highlands?;
-ENSO and St. Louis and Western Equine Encephalitis--California;
-ENSO and St. Louis and Western Equine Encephalitis--Memphis, Tennessee;
-Remote Sensing the Patterns of Vector-Borne Disease in El Niño and non-El Niño years;
-Linkages Between Arboviral Epidemics and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO);
-Climate Forecasting and Remote Sensing: Exploring the Potential for Predicting Rift Valley Fever in Eastern Africa;
-The Impact of ENSO on Malaria in Colombia and Venezuela;
-The Influence of Local Climate Parameters on Dengue and Malaria in Indonesia;
-Kakamega ENSO and Vector Borne Disease Project--malaria component
Rodent-borne Disease
-Predicting Hantavirus Syndrome--Four Corners, United States
Other
-The Influence of El Niño on Air Quality and Related Health Impacts in Southeast Asia; and-Surveillance and Monitoring of Health Consequences of the 1997/98 ENSO in Mozambique
California Pilot Project on the Use of Climate Information
Beginning in the Spring of 1997, Californians were warned that a strong El Niño was well underway, and many in the state began to take measures to prepare for El Niño driven storms that cause severe flooding, landslides, hill slides, and mudflows. During the midst of these activities, NOAA, in collaboration with the University of California Santa Barbara (and other state and federal contributors) conducted a small-scale research pilot project on the use of El Niño-related climate information, and invited decision-makers from several climate-sensitive sectors in California to participate. The pilot project established by this meeting has been underway since December 1997 and includes 25 decision-makers and several climate scientists from government and university-based institutions.
The goal of this pilot project is to learn if and how decision-makers in climate sensitive sectors can use climate information in order to better prepare for and respond to the impacts of climate variability. In pursuit of this goal, OGP assisted in the dissemination of climate forecast and observational information on the impacts of this El Niño to decision-makers in easily understandable language so that they were better equipped to determine if they could incorporate this climate information into their emergency and regular operations. This was followed by detailed feedback from the decision-makers on the overall value of this information.
The climate information was provided by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRICP), and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) with NOAA's Climate Diagnostics Center (CDC) and Scripps Institution of Oceanography, and was accompanied by interpretive information produced by NOAA/OGP. Based in part on the results of this pilot project, NOAA hopes to lay the groundwork for participants of the pilot project and others to regularly receive and incorporate climate information into their decision-making process.
The methodology used for this pilot project was developed by using several sources. Through NOAA/OGP's regional assessments program, participants were able to draw on the experience of and methodologies used by other groups who have been working with decision-makers to use climate forecast and observational information. In addition, it was necessary to use the expertise of participants of the pilot project in developing the methodology. Therefore, an initial meeting of participants (decision-makers, climate scientists, and NOAA/OGP staff) was held in December 1997. This meeting provided participants with an opportunity to meet, to learn about how climate impacts their respective sectors, and to agree on how the pilot project would be conducted.
Following the December 1997 meeting, NOAA/OGP began disseminating monthly packets of climate forecast and observational information for the state of California provided by NOAA/CDC , the IRICP, NOAA/CDC and Scripps. Included in the packet was interpretive information for the graphics so that decision-makers could more quickly understand and identify the types of information that most suited their needs. In addition, NOAA/CPC maintained a weekly updated website where decision-makers could access update information that was sent to them in the packets. This process was followed-up by feedback from the decision-makers on the climate information there were receiving not only from NOAA/OGP, but also from private sector information services and local news media. This was useful in helping producers to understand how and to what extent climate information could be used in decision-making processes.
A 1997/98 El Niño postmortem meeting for this pilot project was held at the end of July 1998, and it provide an opportunity for both the users and producers of climate information to share their experiences during the 1997/98 El Niño for the purpose of identifying improvements in the preparation for and response to the impacts of climate variability. This meeting also explored the potential for future collaborative activities to research the use of climate information within certain climate-sensitive sectors and the institutional capacity for using this information.
Based on various points and other discussions at the postmortem meeting, participants agreed to consider the following projects as a continuation of the California Pilot Project: 1) La Niña project that would include the distribution of climate information during September-April 1998/99 in anticipation of La Niña's impacts on California. It would also include regular documentation (bi weekly/monthly) of how decision-makers are using climate information to prepare for or respond to the impacts of climate variability; 2) Research projects in which institutions within a climate sensitive sector work with producers of climate information to develop sector specific climate forecast products; 3) Research projects on the institutional structure and decision-making processes of climate sensitive organizations; 4) Breakfast meeting to provide an opportunity for media professional and climate scientists to work together on how best to present climate information to the public; 5) Breakfast meeting to provide an opportunity for CEO's of climate sensitive organizations and climate scientists to work together in order to discuss the potential use of climate information within these organizations; 6) Project to coordinate the many web sites that provide climate information for the state of California; and 7) possibly others.
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In order to provide the best climate information during the 1997/98 El Niño and beyond in a timely manner, NOAA/OGP, on behalf of the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate Prediction, implemented an ENSO Rapid Response Project (RRP). The ENSO RRP serves as an interface between the producers of climate information and officials in the United States and abroad by providing monthly and other periodic updates of the ENSO RRP products and eliciting their feedback on the usefulness of these climate products. Through NOAA/OGP, the ENSO RRP distributes a suite of climate products to the IRI Core Group Members, NOAA officials, Department of Commerce officials, other U.S. Government agencies, and several international agencies as well. These products include:
•Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) observation maps and forecasts, precipitation and temperature observations for regions worldwide and on multiple timescales from NOAA/CPC;•Net assessment of seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts for regions worldwide and a comparison of the 1997/98 El Nino SSTs to other El Nino events from IRI;
•A multivariate ENSO Index comparison of recent El Nino events from NOAA's Climate Diagnostic Center (NOAA/CDC);
•Global seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts from the Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies (COLA); and
•Interpretative material for these products provided by NOAA/OGP when necessary.
During the 1997/98 El Niño, NOAA/OGP responded to several requests for information through the ENSO RRP. For example:
1. Officials from United States Embassies in Jakarta, Indonesia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Manila, Philippines, and Brasilia, Brazil requested information regarding fires burning in their respective regions. They requested satellite information that indicates where the fires were burning and climate forecast information that indicates when rainfall was likely to return to normal to provide relief from the impacts of the fires.
2. World Bank officials requested information on the precipitation forecasts for Peru in order to assist them in their decision to issue a loan to the Government of Peru to prepare for the effects of the 1997/98 El Niño.
3. Officials at the OFDA/USAID requested climate forecast information to assist them in targeting areas for their disaster preparedness and response activities during the 1997/98 El Niño. Since September 1997, the ENSO RRP has been providing OFDA/USAID monthly updates of IRI net assessment precipitation forecasts (3 month) for several regions of the world such as Central America and Mexico, South America, Africa, and Asia as well as percent of normal precipitation forecasts for three month time periods for these same regions. In addition, during a disaster period, the ENSO RRP assists OFDA in obtaining from the IRI and NOAA's CPC more specific regional climate information.
4. Officials at the United States Initiative on Joint Implementation (USIJI) of the Unites States Country Studies Program requested ENSO RRP products to be sent to government officials in environmental ministries and/or national meteorological services.
5. In September 1997, officials from the Department of State requested climate information on the impacts of El Niño on North Korea and central China, because these regions had been experiencing a drought. The IRI provided climate information on drought in North Korea and central China and the relationship to the 1997/98 El Niño. This information indicated that following prolonged periods of below average levels of rainfall, the 1997/98 El Niño event may have amplified current drought conditions by causing below normal levels of precipitation.
If you are interested in receiving further information on the NOAA Pilot Program for the Application of Climate Forecasts; the ENSO Experiment; the California Pilot Project on the Use of Climate Information; or the NOAA/OGP ENSO Rapid Response Project (RRP), please contact:
- NOAA Office of Global Programs
- 1100 Wayne Ave., Suite 1225
- Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA
- phone: (1 301) 427-2089
- fax: (1 301) 427-2082
- e-mail: enso.meeting@noaa.gov
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